At the beginning of the season, it would have seemed like madness. But all of the computer simulators have the Patriots at 85 percent or better to make the playoffs and most have them over 90.
Barring a collapse, the Patriots will be playing into January.
So it’s worth delving into predictions on AFC East title chances and even making and/or winning the Super Bowl.
Washington Post
The Post’s computers simulate the season’s remaining games 25,000 times. This is what it is projecting for the Patriots.
Average Wins: 11.9
Makes the Postseason: 94%
Win Division: 54%
Top seed in AFC: 12%
Win Super Bowl: 3%
ESPN’s FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts each team’s record but their formula allows for fractional wins — for example, the Buccaneers are projected to go 12.3-4.7.
The Patriots are projected to go 11.0-6.0.
It gives the Patriots a:
- 85.7% chance to make the playoffs
- 48.7% chance to win the AFC East
- 42.0% chance to make the Divisional Playoff Round
- 17.0% chance to make the conference finals
- 6.7% to make the Super Bowl
- 2.7 % chance to win the Super Bowl
The Athletic
The Athletic uses Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model to make its best guess for the final playoff picture.
It gives the Patriots a:
- 96% chance to make the playoffs
- 63% chance to win the AFC East
- 19% to earn the AFC’s first-round bye
- 7 % chance to win the Super Bowl
PlayoffStatus.com
Make the Playoffs: 92%
Second Round: 56%
Make the AFC Championship: 29%
Make it to Super Bowl: 14%
Win Super Bowl: 7%
BetMGM
The Las Vegas bookmakers are not trying to guess accurately in terms of eventual results as much as they are trying to spread bets around to the most teams, allowing them to make the most money.
BetMGM, the casino’s online sports betting arm, offers bets on the Patriots who are:
- +3000 to win the Super Bowl
- +1300 to win AFC Championship
- +650 to be AFC No. 1 seed
- +125 to win the AFC East
MGM also as awards odds with:
- Drake Maye is +550 for AP MVP
- Mike Vrabel is +220 for AP Coach of the Year
- Stefon Diggs is +2500 AP Comeback Player of the Year
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