The UFC returns this Saturday with a stacked Pay-Per-View event headlined by two of the best light-heavyweight fighters on the planet. Here, I provide in-depth UFC 313 Pereira vs. Ankalaev predictions, along with breakdowns of the best bets to make across the card.
Saturday’s fight night is without a doubt one of the most anticipated thus far in 2025. Learn how the action might unfold here.
Pereira vs. Ankalaev predictions and analysis
For many years, the UFC’s light-heavyweight division was dominated by Jon Jones. Today, however, Alex Pereira has established himself as the most dominant force at 205 pounds.
Pereira’s road to capture the light-heavyweight belt was certainly unique.
He made his name in the middleweight division, scoring wins over elite fighters such as Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. “Poatan” won the title at 205 pounds in late 2023 and has already defended the belt three times.
The entire time that Pereira has held this title, Magomed Ankalaev has been waiting for his opportunity to become the champion. The Dagestani-based mixed martial artist has gone 11-1-2 in the UFC and has not lost a fight since 2018.
It may seem unwise to bet against Alex Pereira at this point. He is without a doubt the best striker in the UFC and has looked nothing short of unstoppable with four straight knockouts in championship fights at 205 pounds.
With that being said, I feel that Magomed Ankalaev has the perfect skill set to defeat Pereira.
While the majority of Ankalaev’s wins have come via strikes, he has displayed incredible wrestling skills throughout his UFC run. It is those skills that should allow him to earn the victory this weekend.
The first two rounds will be incredibly dangerous for Ankalaev. He cannot stand at kicking range against Alex in the same way that he did against Jan Blachowicz back in 2022.
Magomed needs to utilize a wrestling-heavy game plan right away. Once he begins to drain Pereira’s gas tank, he can increase the striking output on the ground to earn a TKO victory in the later rounds.
Official prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins via 4th-round TKO
Pereira vs. Ankalaev moneyline analysis
Odds below are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
- Alex Pereira: -115
- Magomed Ankalaev: -105
Alex Pereira’s ascension up the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings has been truly incredible to witness. He entered the UFC with just a 3-1 record in professional MMA and in just four years managed to win world championships in two different weight classes.
Alex has entered into his recent bouts as a sizable betting favorite. That is not the case leading into Saturday’s title fight.
Pereira comes into this fight as just a -115 favorite. He is likely the better striker, yet some question his ability to stop the grappling skills of Ankalaev.
Magomed Ankalaev has lost just once in his entire UFC career. He is a relentless fighter, able to mix up his striking and grappling skills to secure wins. It’s likely that Magomed is the superior wrestler in this fight, which could explain why he is just the very slight underdog at -105.
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UFC 313: Undercard predictions and best bets
- Rafael Fiziev: -162 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Joshua Van: -188 at bet365 Sportsbook
- Mauricio Ruffy: -485 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The UFC always tends to stack its events in Las Vegas with incredible matchups. UFC 313 is no exception. This is a great card filled with fights that are almost guaranteed to produce fireworks.
One of the most talked about fights on the card takes place in the co-main event between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev.
This is a last-minute replacement fight, as Gaethje was originally slated to take on Dan Hooker this weekend. Hooker was forced off the card with a hand injury just two weeks before fight night and Fiziev agreed to step into his place.
Gaethje and Fiziev first fought each other back in 2023. On that night, Justin managed to rally late to earn a close decision win. Fiziev claims to have learned a lot from that bout and I expect him to enter this rematch with a much better game plan.
Look for Rafael to rely primarily on his kicks and defensive movement. He was finding success with this strategy in the first fight before abandoning the game plan and entering into a wild brawl. He will be far more disciplined in this matchup and should manage to pick Gaethje apart on the outside to earn a decision win.
On the preliminary card, exciting flyweight Joshua Van looks to earn his third-straight UFC victory against Rei Tsuruya. Van is elite and has wins over fighters with more experience and better skills than Tsuruya.
Van will maintain his relentless pace throughout this fight. He averages more than one takedown per bout and has an incredible 80% takedown defense. Look for him to mix up his striking and strong wrestling to score a dominant unanimous decision.
Mauricio Ruffy also appears set for a breakout performance on Saturday.
The Brazilian striking phenom has gone 2-0 in the UFC and seems to be one of the most dynamic kickboxers at 155 pounds. He’ll have a great opponent to showcase those skills in King Green. Ruffy is younger, faster, and more technical and should manage to find a knockout shot before the end of the second round.
