Stop me if you’ve heard this before: This is not a vintage UConn team. Yet, the 2024-25 version still did what Dan Hurley’s teams do in the NCAA Tournament – win.
The two-time defending national champion Huskies scrapped by Oklahoma and now look to set a Division I men’s record with a 14th straight NCAA Tournament win against top seed Florida in Raleigh, North Carolina Sunday (12:10 pm on CBS).
“It felt normal,” Hurley deadpanned after UConn beat Oklahoma, 67-59, on Friday.
This hasn’t been the “normal” Hurley offense, though, and the No. 8 seed Huskies will need a much more cohesive offensive effort to knock off the No. 1 seed Gators, who are 9.5-point favorites. Florida has the second-best odds to win the national championship (trailing only Duke), according to the odds at the best March Madness betting sites.
This is a familiar scenario for UConn. Shabazz Napier’s Huskies were a No. 7 seed in 2014 when they beat the top-seeded Gators in the Final Four en route to their fourth national title. If the Huskies somehow three-peat, this will be just as unexpected, if not more surprising, than Napier’s title run.
The Gators are the hottest team in the country. They entered the NCAA Tournament on the heels of winning the SEC Tournament, then rolled to a 95-69 win over No. 16 seed Norfolk State.
If UConn wins, it will break a tie with Duke (1991-93) for the most consecutive men’s NCAA Tournament wins since seeding began in 1979 – on “Tobacco Road” no less. Hurley’s brother Bobby was the star point guard on those Duke teams.
This Hurley’s Huskies haven’t lost an NCAA Tournament game since falling in the first round to 12-seed New Mexico in 2022.
In 2014, UConn was a 7-point underdog vs. Florida in that Final Four matchup. This time the Huskies are the biggest underdogs (9.5) they’ve been in an NCAA Tournament game since they stunned Duke (also 9.5 points) in the 1999 national championship game.
The over-under is set around 150.5 to 151, while the UConn moneyline is around +400 at most sportsbooks. Let’s get into my UConn vs. Florida predictions and best bets for this March Madness round of 32 matchup.
UConn vs. Florida predictions and best bets for Round of 32
- UConn +5.5 first half: -110 at bet365 (.50 unit)
- Walter Clayton Jr. 3+ three pointers: +125 at bet365 (1 unit)
- Florida to win by 6-10: +325 at BetMGM (.25 unit)
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check the odds closer to game time for the best value. College prop betting isn’t allowed in Massachusetts, and several other states. If you don’t see player prop odds on your betting app, college props are not allowed in your state.
UConn is now 13-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2023. That’s the good news. It’s also old news and pretty irrelevant to this year’s team. The Huskies have lost 6 players to the NBA since 2023 and this year it’s taken its toll during an up-and-down “transition year.”
Can UConn cover this full game spread? Maybe, but I like the first half line of +5.5 better. I like this play for two reasons: UConn was just 6-25 from three in its opening round game against the Sooners, so I expect some early regression here.
I mainly expect a better effort out of star freshman Liam McNeeley, who went 2-for-13 against OU, missing 11 straight shots at one point.
Southborough, Massachusetts native Alex Karaban was just 1-for-5 from three. I expect both to play much better, especially early since they won’t want to fall behind quickly to this very dangerous, and deep Florida team.
The Huskies will try to keep it a half-court game (63.9 possessions per game, 343rd, per Kenpom.com), while the Gators want to run (69.6, 62nd). I think if it gets out of hand, it will be in the second half.
Speaking of dangerous, I’ve watched a lot of college basketball this year and I struggle to think of a more lethal 3-point shooter than Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. (101 3P FGM, 38.0% in regular season).
Clayton has extended NBA range. He’s going to be a major problem for a UConn defense that ranks 232nd in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (34.6%). I like him to hit at least three 3’s.
Connecticut’s defense has been the issue all season, which is unlike recent UConn teams. The Huskies give up 101.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Kenpom.com (81st in DI). For reference, that number was 90.9 in 2023 and 91.1 in 2024.
UConn also fouls a ton (18.2 per game, 281st) and Florida has four players that shoot better than 74% from the line. The Gators’ front court of Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu will also cause UConn major problems – both offensive and defensively.
I expect Florida’s top-ranked offense (128.2 points per 100 possessions, per Kenpom.com) and depth (10 players average at least 15 minutes) to be the difference in the second half.
Wagering on an exact line of Florida to win by 6-10 is great value here and worth a flier.
UConn vs. Florida moneyline odds analysis
Why Florida can win as the favorite
Best odds: -450 at FanDuel
The question isn’t can Florida win this game, it’s why can’t the Gators win it all? I struggle to see many weaknesses with this team. I have them beating Houston for the national championship in my bracket, for what it’s worth.
But for argument’s sake, let’s get into it. Florida is not only the hottest team in the nation, it has the nation’s best offense. The Gators have six players who average at least 8.0 points per game. Florida also boasts the 10th best defense (92.9 points per 100 possessions, per Kenpom.com).
Florida wins this game if its 5th-ranked 3-point defense (29.3%) limits UConn’s Solo Ball and Alex Karaban on the perimeter. The Huskies don’t have a dominant inside presence, so the main way they will beat Florida is by getting hot from 3.
Why UConn can win as the underdog
Best odds: +400 at Caesars
UConn, despite its status as two-time defending champion, has always embraced the underdog role.
As I mentioned in the intro, they’re the biggest ‘dogs they’ve been in a tournament game since upsetting Duke for the national title in 1999. I expect Hurley to use this as motivation and have them ready to go early – specifically on the defensive end.
That said, UConn will need to match Florida shot-for-shot, which means they’ll need Karaban, McNeeley and Solo Ball to all be on their game. McNeeley was passive against Oklahoma; he needs to drive more and see if he can hit some free throws to get into a rhythm.
UConn will also need more contributions from role players like Aidan Mahaney and Jaylin Stewart to help combat the Gators’ edge when it comes to depth. UConn’s core players have to avoid getting into foul trouble. Connecticut’s bench is a major weakness.
