Red Sox prospect Kristian Campbell didn’t appear on Baseball America’s Top 30 Red Sox prospect list entering 2024. Flash forward six months, BA has him ranked Boston’s No. 3 prospect and the No. 24 prospect in all of baseball.
The Red Sox had several prospects who took major leaps in 2024. Campbell took the greatest.
Below are the top five 2024 Red Sox breakout prospects, then a few honorable mentions. Campbell headlines the list, which also includes two 18-year-olds: one who is up to 99 mph on the mound and another who stole 35 bases.
The 22-year-old shortstop/center fielder/second baseman dropped to the fourth round of the 2023 MLB Draft because of concerns over his offensive impact, what position he would play and lack of resume after playing only one year of college ball.
He’s certainly answered questions about impact. Campbell, who was placed on Triple-A Worcester’s 7-day IL (lat) Tuesday likely ending his season, slugged .558 with 20 homers, 32 doubles and three triples in 115 games (517 plate appearances) between High-A Greenville (40 games), Double-A Portland (56 games) and Worcester (19 games).
“Just one of those kids that the impact was the question and this is where two things need to get mentioned: his willingness to buy in and the job our player development did with him to create that impact and get those exit velos up to where they are,” said Red Sox area scout Kirk Fredriksson who scouted Campbell at Georgia Tech.
Campbell was known for his elite contact skills coming out of college. The Red Sox asked him to trade some contact to hit for more power.
His strikeout percentage increased as his power numbers increased at the beginning of the year (as expected). He had a 26.6% strikeout percentage at Greenville.
But his strikeout rate actually dropped as the year progressed, showing he can have plus bat-to-ball skills while also hitting for power. He had a 16.5% strikeout percentage over 340 plate appearances (75 games) between Portland and Worcester.
He leads all Red Sox minor leaguers in extra-base hits (55).
Baseball America recently wrote about Campbell, “His 108 mph 90th percentile EV against RHPs is plus-plus raw power, which is exceptional given the contact skills, and his maximum exit velocity of 111.2 is already above the major league median.”
The Athletic’s Keith Law named him baseball’s Prospect of the Year.
2. FRANKLIN ARIAS
Arias, an 18-year-old shortstop who Boston signed out of Venezuela on Jan. 15, 2023, is ranked No. 6 on Baseball America’s Top 30 Red Sox prospect list after beginning 2024 ranked 23rd. Baseball America also has him No. 92 on its Top 100.
He batted .309 with a .409 on-base percentage, .487 slugging percentage .896 OPS, nine homers, 25 doubles, two triples, 54 RBIs, 59 runs, 50 walks, 65 strikeouts and 35 steals in 372 plate appearances between the Florida Complex League (51 games) and Low-A Salem (36 games).
“He’s driving the ball,” assistant GM Eddie Romero said earlier this year. “He’s done a hell of a job with our guys, our staff, down there in terms of getting his bat speed numbers up and driving the ball. I think that’s something we knew was going to come in time. It might be happening a little earlier than we thought. But he’s slugging the ball down there. He’s been patient in terms of like he’s drawing walks and not striking out much.”
He also has a strong arm and the ability to be a plus defender with above-average range. His ability to stay under control and always knowing where to be in the field impressed the Red Sox when they were scouting him. Romero raved about his maturity and professionalism.
He was successful on 35-of-41 stolen base attempts. Baseball America grades his run tool 50 (major league average) on the 20-80 scale. So he’s not a burner like Jarren Duran and David Hamilton.
“I wouldn’t put him in that category (with Duran and Hamilton),” Romero said Tuesday at Tropicana Field. “I would put him in the category of a kid who has really good instincts and can do things at a very mature level on the base paths. Because I don’t think he’s a plus runner by any means. I think he’s got good speed and he’s very advanced at timing things, taking advantage and preparing before the game. He’s just got a very mature way about going into it for his pregame. He’ll know pitcher moves. He’ll know catcher arm strength. I think he’s advanced in that area. He’s got good speed. He’s not a Jarren Duran. But I think it’s that he uses his IQ to help him steal a lot of bases.”
Garcia, a 21-year-old outfielder from Venezuela, spent last offseason working on his swing and getting his body in better shape at the JetBlue Park complex. The results have shown.
“I worked a lot on my swing to try to hit balls in the air,” Garcia said. “Just try to elevate baseballs.
“I made a small adjustment with the hands when it was time to go and time to trigger the barrel, which has allowed me to have more (line drives),” he added.
He was unranked on Baseball America and MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 Red Sox prospect lists entering this season. MLB Pipeline now has him No. 12 and BA has him No. 18.
SoxProspects.com also had Garcia unranked in its Top 60 entering spring training. It jumped him to No. 49 entering the regular season and now has him No. 15.
The 6-foot, 215-pounder is third among Red Sox minor leaguers in extra base hits with 50. Only Kristian Campbell (55) and Roman Anthony (51) have more.
He leads all Red Sox minor leagues with 23 homers. He batted .286 with a .356 on-base percentage, .536 slugging percentage, .892 OPS, 23 homers, 24 doubles, five triples, 66 RBIs, 78 runs, 33 walks, 99 strikeouts and 17 steals in 459 plate appearances between Low-A Salem (24 games), High-A Greenville (53 games) and Double-A Portland (30 games).
“Thinking about where I was last year, I adjusted my body composition,” Garcia said. “I had a little bit more body fat last year while this year I’ve transferred that into muscle mass. I raised my muscle mass and decreased my body fat percentage.”
4. JUAN VALERA
The righty went from signing for $45,000 out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in April 2023 to throwing up to 99 mph for Low-A Salem this season.
“It’s been a quick ascent,” Romero said Tuesday.
Valera, who turned 18 in May, allowed just 26 hits (only one home run) in 63 ⅓ innings between the Florida Complex League and Salem. Opponents batted .125 against him. Left-handed batters hit .106 and right-handed hitters batted .138.
The 6-foot-3, 205-pounder’s fastball was between 94-99 mph. He also throws a slider, sweeper and changeup.
The Red Sox could see the potential for velo when they scouted him because of the way his body moved when he delivered the ball.
“What we loved was the physicality,” Romero said. “And there’s a lot giving him strength in the way his arm worked and also the way his body moved.”
“Did we think it was going to come this quickly?” Romero added. “I think the pitching group along with the strength staff has done a tremendous job helping him to add the velo. But also he’s developing a really good breaking ball that he didn’t have. That’s something all our lower-level pitching guys and pitching coaches down in the Dominican help with. And I think once he got to Fort Myers earlier this year, it really helped him take off and refine that. He deserves all the credit because he’s put in the work. He’s got himself in a great spot physically and he’s really taken to a lot of the pitch design stuff, which has really strengthened his repertoire.”
Valera finished with a 1.99 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 18 outings (16 starts) between the FCL and Salem.
He’s still unranked on Baseball America and MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 organizational lists but SoxProspects has him No. 24 after he started the season unranked on their Top 60.
His command needs to improve. He averaged 5.5 walks per nine innings in seven starts at Salem. But his 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.5 hits allowed per nine innings shows he has the stuff to be ranked one of Boston’s Top 10 prospects soon.
5. DALVINSON REYES
Reyes made just six starts in the Dominican Summer League and so it’s difficult to call him season a breakout year with such a small sample size. But what he did in those six starts put him on the map as a top rising Red Sox pitching prospect.
At just 17, he’s already listed at 6-foot-5, 204 pounds.
“He’s up to 93, 94 (mph) down in the Dominican,” Romero said earlier in the yea. “He’s been really good. Pounding the strike zone.”
He walked just two and struck out 19.
Look for Reyes to make his stateside debut in 2025.
HONORABLE MENTION
~ Mikey Romero, Boston’s 2022 first round pick, appeared in just 34 games in 2023 because of a back injury. He put himself back on the map in 2024 after beginning this year back on the IL (until May 14).
He finished with a .271 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, .509 slugging percentage, .821 OPS, 16 homers, 24 doubles, four triples, 53 RBIs, 54 runs, 18 walks and 84 strikeouts in 362 plate appearances between the FSL (three game rehab), High-A Greenville (59 games) and Double-A Portland (16 games).
He hit six homers in 16 games with Portland to close out the season. He had a stretch of eight homers in 12 games from July 20-Aug. 4 with Greenville.
He still has a lot of work to do to improve but he’s still only 20.
~ Jedixson Paez, a 20-year-old righty, posted a 3.17 ERA in 22 outings (12 starts) between Low-A Salem and High-A Greenville. He showed excellent command, walking 12 batters and striking out 113 in 96 ⅔ innings. Out of nowhere, he landed as Boston’s No. 8 prospect on a Top 47 Red Sox prospect list that Fangraphs dropped July 2.
He throws a sinker, four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup and slider.
“Really the three go-to (pitches) for him are the slider, the changeup and that sinker,” Romero said.
~ Hunter Dobbins, a righty who turned 25 on Aug. 30, has recorded a 3.21 ERA in 24 starts between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester. He’s up to 99 mph and has added a splinker.
~ Connelly Early, a 22-year-old lefty, had a 3.99 ERA in 23 starts between Greenville and Portland. He struck out 30.8% of the batters he faced. Early has added two secondary pitches (sweeper, “cutter/slider type” hybrid) in the past six months that should help him induce even more whiffs. He also has continued to throw his changeup, curveball and four-seamer.
