Each year for the past 25 years, my Hall of Fame ballot arrives in early December, and each year, it gets put aside for a few weeks while I contemplate, and yes, procrastinate.
I start thinking about the names on the ballot, and in my head, begin the elimination process. Then, I dive a bit deeper into the names appearing on the ballot for the first time, trying to discern which newbies are worthy.
Finally, comes Decision Day.
As I’ve written in the past, my thinking has evolved some. I used to automatically dismiss players known to have used PEDs, or at least, were widely suspected of PED use. I have since amended that and voted for both Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, among others.
However, I continue to withhold votes for players who were disciplined and suspended after MLB instituted testing. So, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez, to name two, don’t get my votes, despite otherwise obviously having the necessary credentials for Cooperstown.
Also, I’m not above changing my mind. While I can’t recall ever dropping a player for whom I previously voted, I have, on occasion, added a player whom I had previously excluded. And to those who challenge that with, “The player’s numbers didn’t get any better after he stopped playing,” I remind people that sometimes, context changes, as does my appreciation for a player’s career. There is one such instance on this year’s ballot.
This year’s ballot features six names, which is among the most I’ve voted in a single year. I’ve never felt obligated to get to the maximum number allowed (10), nor have I ever returned a blank ballot. I’d say, on average, I typically vote for about four players. This year’s ballot runs a bit deeper.
In explaining my choices, I’ve broken by ballot into three categories: players new to the ballot; players I’ve voted for in the past and again this year; and one player who’s been on the ballot for a while who’s getting my vote for the first time. After each category, I’ve added some players whom I carefully considered but ultimately didn’t select.
NEW TO THE BALLOT: (2)
Adrian Beltre: We know that Beltre will not be elected unanimously, as at least two voters (both local) have inexplicably left him off their ballot in early tabulations.
I find it hard to understand how Beltre could possibly fall short. He’s 17th all-time in hits with 3,166. He has five Gold Gloves at third base and also win four Silver Sluggers at the position. In terms of defensive WAR, only the incomparable Brooks Robinson has a higher total.
Meanwhile, his 477 homers are third-most all-time for third basemen and he leads all third baseman in both extra-base hits (1,151) and RBI (1,707).
Again, explain the logic for keeping him off the ballot.
Joe Mauer: Some will argue that Mauer didn’t spend enough seasons catching, and viewed in the context of other first basemen (the position he played over the second half of his career), his production was lacking.
I’d counter with this: Mauer was among the best offensive catchers in history, with three (!) batting titles while behind the plate. In the history of the game, only 29 players have won as many as three titles.
Let’s take his eight best seasons, from 2006 through 2013. During that span, his batting average was second only to Miguel Cabrera and his on-base percentage second only to Joey Votto. Pretty good company, no? Also, his OPS+ was 11th best in the game in that run.
His production dipped dramatically after he suffered multiple concussions, which led to vision problems. He retired at just 35.
Still, it’s impossible to argue with the idea that Mauer was a truly elite player in his peak seasons.
Just missed: None.
While Chase Utley is garnering some support, I felt his period of dominance (2005-2009) was too brief and that the final nine years of his career were unremarkable.
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RETURNING TO MY BALLOT: (3)
Andruw Jones: I’ve been a big backer of Jones since he first appeared on the ballot six years ago and continue to enthusiastically back his candidacy. His numbers have continually climbed, from being named on 19.4 percent of all ballots in Year One to 58.1 percent last year.
His election isn’t exactly guaranteed, but with this year and three more years of eligibility left, he’s certainly trending toward that.
Essentially, i see Jones as “Ozzie Smith with power.” Yes, that’s how good he was in center field and how dominant he was defensively. The only outfielders with more Gold Gloves are Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente.
And there’s this: among the 15 position players who’ve won 10 Gold Gloves, only four have also hit 400 homers: Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Schmidt and Jones.
Sure, Gold Gloves might be a little subjective. But how about a defensive WAR of 24.4. No other outfielder in history cracked 20.0. There isn’t complete data on defensive runs saved for all of his career, but another metric — Total Zone total fielding runs above average — shows Jones with 230, the most by any center fielder since 1953.
Did I mention the 434 home runs, too?
Billy Wagner: We know by now that the save statistic isn’t the best measurement of a reliever’s effectiveness, any more than batting average isn’t the best metric for a hitter. But 422 saves is still a noteworthy total.
But there’s more to make the case for Wagner. He also has the second-best ERA of any pitcher of the live ball era with at least 750 career innings. Wagner is at 2.31; only Mariano Rivera, the game’s greatest reliever and the only player unanimously elected to Cooperstown, was better at 2.21.
Wagner’s ERA+ was 187 for his career, meaning he was almost twice as good as the average pitcher. Moreover, he is No. 1 in strikeouts-per-nine-innings with 11.9, and his career WHIP of 0.998 is nearly unmatched.
The one knock on Wagner is his relative lack of innings, with 903. But he came of age at a time when most closers only threw an inning per outing.
Carlos Beltran: Now in his second year on the ballot, Beltran made a strong debut last year, getting named on 46.5 percent.
He’s one of 38 players in history to both score and knock in more than 1,500 runs. He also is one just five players to collect 500 doubles, 400 homers and 300 steals. The others: Andre Dawson, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez.
He also has the best base-stealing success rate of 86.43 percent, the highest in the live ball era. In the field, he won three Gold Gloves and had 40 DRS (defensive runs saved) in center field. He was also a superb postseason performer with a 1.021. (I’m of the belief that a strong showing in the postseason can sometimes put a candidate over the top).
It’s hard to find an element of the game in which Beltran didn’t flourish: he had power, speed and could defend.
Some have withheld their support for Beltran for his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, but I don’t think we have enough data to put any of that into context. It was wrong, but in my mind, not disqualifying.
Just missed: Todd Helton.
Helton is likely to be elected after being named on 72.2 percent of ballots last year, meaning he only needs an additional handful of votes to gain election this year.
To me, Helton falls just short. While there’s no denying some of the superb seasons he had in the first third of his career, Helton’s last nine years with the Rockies were quite pedestrian. In those last nine years, beginning with his age-31 season, Helton had one season of 20 or more homers and just three seasons with more than 80 RBI.
For a run-producing player, at an offensive position (first), his elite production was limited to about seven seasons. And, of course, those numbers were greatly enhanced by playing at Coors Field. His career OPS on the road was .855 – good, but hardly great.
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NEW TO MY BALLOT (1)
Gary Sheffield: For his first nine years, I omitted Sheffield, feeling that he was a well-below-average defender whose offensive numbers didn’t quite translate to Cooperstown-worthy.
Call it guilt or reappraisal, but in his final year of eligibility, I’m giving Sheffield a vote, though it likely will be too little to boost Sheffield’s chances. Last year, in his next-to-last year of eligibility, he was named on 55 percent, so this will require quite a jump.
Sheffield insists that he was unaware that he used PEDs when he trained with Barry Bonds, and because all of that took place before MLB began testing and suspending, I’m willing to accept that. His one-time acknowledgement that he once purposely made throws into the stands from third base in order to get out of Milwaukee remains troubling, but not disqualifying.
The thing that changed my mind was re-examining his offensive numbers, along with input from players who played when he did. He had a career OPS of .907. He also showed incredible contact, skills, never striking out more thran 83 times while maintaining a career OBP of .393.
His five Silver Slugger awards and finished in the Top 10 of MVP voting six times, including three times in the Top 3. That, and 509 homers can’t be ignored.
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Before he was hired to manage the Los Angeles Angels earlier this offseason, Ron Washington was the third base coach with the Atlanta Braves with a reputation for being the best infield instructor in the game. (Fans of the movie Moneyball will recount Washington contradicting Billy Beane’s contention that it would be easy for Scott Hattegberg to learn first base.)
As such, few have better insight into Vaughn Grissom, whom the Red Sox acquired for Chris Sale last weekend. Washington has heard the doubts about Grissom’s defensive ability, but has little doubt that Grissom can thrive at second base for the Sox.
“I think the kid’s going to be a tremendous baseball player,” said Washington, “and I think he’s going to do a tremendous job for Boston at second base. He just needs a chance to play and a chance to go through growing pains. I mean, he’s 23 years old. He needs an opportunity and I believe if he get it, he’ll show who he is. I believe that with all my heart.”
Washington said Grissom has an innate feel for second, and will only get better over time. Washington saw growth from Grissom, even when he failed to win the shortstop job last March with the Braves and was optioned to Triple A at the start of the season.
“When I first got him, he was raw,” said Washington. “He had only been in baseball two years, and that was in A ball. And we were trying to turn him into a major league shortstop, which takes time. But because he was in Atlanta, which expected to win, he couldn’t grow into the position because their expectations were higher than his wisdom, knowledge and experience. He had to take things in quickly and I thought he did.
“It really teed me off that there was much talk in Atlanta about his defense not being up to par. But they never took into account his inexperience, or (lack of) time in the game or what he had to go through to put himself in the picture. I believe he can play shortstop also. But there are so many decisions that have to be made (at short) and he was just a little slow in making those decisions. He had to learn.”
Washington believes a key is to keep working with Grissom to maintain his confidence and help him progress.
“They have to continue to work him,” said Washington, “and take him to the next level — mentally and physically. And not just hitting him ground balls; you’ve got to teach him why you do the things you do. That’s teaching defense. You’ve got to be out there on a daily basis and make sure you keep his mind engaged so he can continue to grow. He got to the big leagues at 22 and he’s got a lot of upside. But they’ve got to keep working him.”
In assessing Grissom’s skills, Washington rates Grissom as having “above-average arm strength,” and improving range.
“He’s not going to be (Francisco) Lindor at second base with that kind of range,” cautioned Washington. “But he will do well enough to help the Boston Red Sox. If they put it together, I guarantee that he’ll be in the middle of it — offensively and defensively.”
Washington is also bullish on Grissom’s offensive upside.
“This kid can hit. He’s got some offensive talent,” he said. “He has great bat-to-ball skills.”
