FORT MYERS, Fla. — Monday marks the first full-squad workout of Red Sox spring training and all 63 (one less than expected after Saturday’s trade that sent John Schreiber to Kansas City) players expected in camp have arrived in Fort Myers. For the next five-plus weeks in camp, Boston’s decision-makers will assess what they have and decide which 26 players will open the season with the major league team on March 28 in Seattle.
Our previous Opening Day roster projection from Jan. 4 included some projected additions via free agency or trade. While further moves are still possible, this version will only include in-house options already on the roster.
Here’s the projection, which will surely change a few times before Opening Day.:
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STARTING PITCHERS (5): RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Tanner Houck
ANALYSIS: Four starters — Bello, Giolito, Crawford and Pivetta — are locked into spots (if healthy) with the fifth and final one up for grabs. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and manager Alex Cora will choose from the trio of Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski for the final opening. All three would seem to have a chance with Houck and Whitlock still possessing dominant pitch mixes and Winckowski, who broke out as a reliever in 2023, looking like a dark horse option to return to the starting five.
The guess here is that Houck, who spent the entire season in the rotation last year and more success as a starter than the other two, has an early advantage. For as much as he struggled last year both before and after having his face broken by a line drive in June, Houck still does have a respectable 4.17 ERA in 41 career starts. Any of the three candidates could claim the fifth spot. The two that don’t will head to the bullpen.
Cooper Criswell will likely start the year in the Worcester rotation and serve as a depth option on the 40-man roster; lefty Brandon Walter is another pitcher with starting experience ticketed for Worcester. Top prospects Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales are farther away from contributing but also on the 40-man. The Red Sox could benefit from adding a veteran free agent starter or two on a minor league deal to add experienced options at Triple-A.
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RELIEF PITCHERS (8): RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Chris Martin, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Josh Winckowski, LHP Brennan Bernardino, RHP Isaiah Campbell, RHP Zack Kelly, RHP Bryan Mata
ANALYSIS: The Schreiber trade changed the complexion of Boston’s bullpen mix, taking away one roster lock and opening the door for other, less experienced candidates to open the season in the majors. Jansen and Martin remain on the team despite trade rumors and are locks to make it as experienced back-end options. Whoever doesn’t win the fifth rotation spot will head to the bullpen; that’s Whitlock and Winckowski here with Houck projected to go start. Bernardino had a great year out of nowhere in 2023 and will serve as Cora’s high-leverage lefty once again.
That’s five out of eight spots locked up — and three up for grabs. On the 40-man roster, Campbell, Criswell, Kelly, Mata, Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten and Greg Weissert are the right-handed candidates for spots and Joe Jacques, Chris Murphy and Walter are in the mix if Cora wants to carry a second lefty. Veteran non-roster invitee Lucas Luetge has the most experience of the lefty relievers in camp and could push for a spot even though he’s not on the 40-man roster. Fellow southpaws Jorge Benitez, Cam Booser and Helcris Olivarez could, too. For non-roster righties, Justin Hagenman, Franklin German, Luis Guerrero and A.J. Politi are among the notable names but all of those are long shots to make the club considering how many 40-man options there are.
So far, it looks like the most likely candidates for the final three spots are Campbell, Kelly, Mata, Slaten, Weissert, Murphy and Luetge. Cora talked up Campbell (acquired over the winter from Seattle) on Saturday after the Schreiber trade, so he’s penciled in with the caveat that the Red Sox have plenty of flexibilities with the optionable righties in camp. Campbell, Criswell, Kelly and Weissert can be sent back and forth freely from the majors to Triple-A (and vice versa). It’s likely all of them will pitch in the majors throughout the year. For now, the second spot goes to Kelly because of his experience in the organization and the fact he made the team last spring.
Perhaps the most interesting roster conundrum facing the Red Sox is the status of Slaten and Mata, who do not come with the flexibility of some of their teammates. Both Slaten (as a Rule 5 pick) and Mata (out of minor league options) must make the team or be exposed to waivers. They can’t be optioned to the minors freely. With that the case, the Red Sox will be forced to decide whether to carry Slaten and/or Mata in Seattle or risk losing them. That means each will get a long, long look in spring training. If both impress, the Red Sox can carry both of them, especially now that Schreiber is out of the mix. But for now, we’ll project just one makes it and give the edge to Mata, who has a long history in the organization as a former top prospect.
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CATCHERS (2): C Connor Wong, C Reese McGuire
ANALYSIS: For the second straight year, the Red Sox are expected to proceed with the Wong-McGuire duo behind the plate. That doesn’t mean others aren’t in the mix. Cora said Saturday that, in the camp-wide spirit of competition the Sox are promoting this spring, no one’s roster spot is safe, even among the catchers. To that end, Boston has a few veterans in camp with major league experience.
Roberto Pérez, a veteran of 10 major league seasons with two Gold Gloves to his name, is the biggest threat to McGuire to steal the backup spot. The 35-year-old is not yet all the way back from the right rotator cuff injury that cost him almost all of 2023 but could threaten for a job if healthy. Tyler Heineman, who was recently acquired in a minor trade with the Mets, also has big league experience and is on the 40-man roster, though he projects as the starter in Worcester. Mark Kolozsvary is also with the club as a non-roster invitee.
Wong is a lock and the backup job is McGuire’s to lose. But there is a better group of depth options in camp than in years past.
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INFIELDERS (6): 1B Triston Casas, 2B Vaughn Grissom, SS Trevor Story, 3B Rafael Devers, INF/OF Pablo Reyes, INF/OF Bobby Dalbec
ANALYSIS: Unlike last year, the starting infield is a settled group heading into spring training. Casas, Grissom, Story and Devers are everyday starters and will each be important pieces of the club’s core in 2024. Any infield questions have to do with the group behind them.
In a perfect world, Cora would like to carry two bench players with the ability to be infield backups. In Dalbec, Romy Gonzalez, David Hamilton, Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez, he has plenty of options. Reyes seems to have a leg up on the field because of how well he played last year and the fact he (unlike the other four) is out of minor league options. He can back up at second base, shortstop, third base and even first base in a pinch. For now, Dalbec — against all odds — projects to make the team as a corner infield backup who can provide pop off the bench and even mix in at the corner outfield spots. A trade involving Dalbec remains possible but he does fit the roster better this year than he did in 2023 with Justin Turner gone.
Gonzalez, a recent waiver claim from Chicago, has upside and could mix in if someone gets hurt. Valdez, and to a lesser extent, Hamilton, will likely start in Worcester but could be called upon if a need arises in the bigs. Journeyman Joe Dunand and Jamie Westbrook are in camp on minor league deals and prospect Nick Yorke is getting closer to the majors as well.
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OUTFIELDERS (5): DH/LF Masataka Yoshida, RF/LF Wilyer Abreu, CF/LF Jarren Duran, OF Tyler O’Neill, OF Rob Refsnyder
ANALYSIS: The biggest question on the positional side of things has to do with Ceddanne Rafaela, the defensively gifted prospect who will likely take over full-time in center field at some point this year. Cora has repeatedly said that spot is Rafaela’s when he’s ready and that he will have a chance to claim it during spring training. He first has to show that his plate discipline has improved.
Abreu, Duran and O’Neill are locks to play major roles in the outfield even if the exact alignment is dependent on Rafaela. If Rafaela is in the majors, he’ll likely play center with Abreu in right, Duran in left and O’Neill mixing in at all three spots, especially against lefties. If Rafaela starts in Triple-A — which we’re projecting now — then Duran is the Opening Day center fielder with O’Neill in left and Abreu in right. It’s clear now Yoshida will be the designated hitter on most days. Refsnyder once again will provide a right-handed bench bat but because of the addition of O’Neill, his roster spot could be in jeopardy once Rafaela is ready.
Beyond Rafaela, the Red Sox don’t have much upper level outfield depth that could threaten for a roster spot. Mark Contreras, Dalton Guthrie and Corey Rosier are in camp as NRIs. Gonzalez can also play outfield as well.
