The Red Sox made a series of mistakes in 2022 that eventually led them to receive a lower compensation draft pick when Xander Bogaerts left in free agency.
But it all worked out perfectly in the end. Boston used the comp pick on Kristian Campbell, who in just one season went from unranked on Baseball America’s Top 30 Red Sox prospect list to the game’s No. 24 overall prospect.
Yeah, they kind of got lucky.
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Boston appears to have made a smart decision earlier this month by extending starting pitcher Nick Pivetta a $21.05 million qualifying offer.
It came as a surprise at the time. It seemed likely Pivetta was a strong candidate to accept it to return to Boston in 2025.
But now it appears he likely won’t accept it. If he declines, it will show the Red Sox read the market perfectly and they will receive a higher comp pick for him than they did for Bogaerts when they drafted Campbell.
Pivetta’s decision must be made by 4 p.m. Tuesday.
Series of mistakes in 2022
What went down in 2022 that led to Boston to eventually land Campbell? A series of mistakes resulted in something good.
First, Boston lowballed Bogaerts in spring training 2022, offering him an extension that was effectively only one-year, $30 million added on to the remainder of his contract.
The Red Sox then failed to trade Bogaerts and other fellow pending free agents J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha at the 2022 trade deadline. Their payroll remained above the $230 million CBT base threshold by not trading any of those players.
They received no draft pick compensation when Martinez and Wacha signed elsewhere during the 2022-23 offseason because neither was attached to a qualifying offer.
The Red Sox did receive draft pick compensation for Bogaerts and Eovaldi because they offered them a $19.65 million qualifying offer, which both declined. Boston ended up with two 2023 comp pick after the fourth round. The Bogaerts and Eovaldi comp pick would have been two rounds higher (after the second round) had Boston cut its payroll at the 2022 deadline below $230 million.
The series of mistakes though led them to landing a potential star in Campbell who ho was a first round talent but got overlooked because of a few concerns about his game back then. The Red Sox had him on their initial draft board right around where they picked him. So it’s not like they would have used the comp pick on Campbell if it had been higher (after the second round).
A smart decision with Pivetta
The Red Sox it seems read the market perfectly, understanding there’s a chance that Pivetta declines his QO.
If Pivetta declines it and signs elsewhere, Boston will receive a 2025 compensation draft pick.
The Red Sox’ 2024 payroll landed below the $237 million CBT base threshold. So the comp pick would follow the second round instead of the fourth round.
It all depends on how well the Red Sox draft before realizing if this smart decision works out or not.
But give Boston credit. It has done quite well with recent comp picks, landing both Campbell and Roman Anthony — who Baseball America ranks the game’s No. 1 prospect.
The Red Sox offered starter Eduardo Rodriguez a qualifying offer after the 2021 season that he declined. When Rodriguez signed with Detroit, Boston received the 79th overall pick in the 2022 draft as compensation and used it to pick Anthony.
Will the Red Sox add another top prospect this time around? Time will tell. The first step is Pivetta declining the qualifying offer tomorrow.
