FOXBOROUGH — As heavy underdogs for the second straight week, the Patriots will have the chance to pull off back-to-back upsets against AFC East foes.
To do that they’ll have to knock off Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, where Bill Belchick’s teams have often struggled (9-14) despite their frequent success. So will the Patriots be able to deliver another stunner against Miami on Sunday afternoon?
Let’s get to this week’s preview and find out:
THE BIGGEST STORYLINE: Can the Patriots do it again?
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick walks on the field prior to an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)AP
A week after shocking the Bills, the Patriots have a chance to pull themselves back towards the playoff race.
“Really just want to build off the momentum and continue to do it, do it over and over again,” Mac Jones said. “Stick to the process, have expectations for yourself and don’t pay attention to the other expectations. That’s going to be big for me, and really starts in practice, right? Try to focus on ‘how can you do it again’? How can you stack good days together?’”
This is a particularly massive game for New England with the trade deadline looming.
With a win, they’ll be sitting at 3-5 and their next three matchups are against Washington, Indianapolis, and the New York Giants. However, with a loss they’ll sit 2-6, and it’d be hard to argue against selling at the deadline. With six losses before Halloween, their margin of error would basically be zero for the rest of the season, and it’s not like there’s a switch they’ll be able to flip.
Like the team’s Joe Judge issued sweatshirts say: “No one is coming; it’s up to us.”
DOLPHINS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) gestures as he runs for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)AP
— Can they contain Tyreek?
Tyreek Hill is running away with the NFL’s receiving yards crown this season. The explosive Dolphins wideout already has 53 catches for 902 yards in seven games. For some perspective, Hill would have been New England’s leading receiver for the entire 2022 season with those stats.
Bill Belichick has done an OK job of keeping Hill in check over the years — 41 catches for 590 yards and six touchdowns in seven games — and Week 2 in New England was easily his least productive game (5 catches, 40 yards) of the season. The Patriots will need to keep Hill under wraps if they have any hope of pulling an upset off, and JC Jackson knows that physicality at the line of scrimmage is going to be key.
“Especially these guys,” Jackson said. “This is like a track team. They’ve got a bunch of fast guys. So we’ve gotta be physical. We’ve gotta get hands on (them) and slow these guys down.”
— Will a similar Patriots game plan work?
During their Week 2 matchup, Bill Belichick opted to play three high safeties in an attempt to keep everything in front of the Patriots defense.
It worked really well.
The Dolphins put up 24 points, but Mac Jones and the Patriots offense could only muster 17. For some perspective, a week later Miami hung 70 points on Denver.
So will the Patriots be able to replicate the same approach? They won’t have the element of surprise on their side, but even when Miami made halftime adjustments, they only scored seven points on six second half drives — and the touchdown came on a short field.
Still, despite the Week 2 success, the bet here is that New England switches things up this time around.
— Will Tua’s run against the Patriots continue?
Somehow, Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 against Bill Belichick, but it hasn’t exactly been a statistical masterpiece.
The Dolphins quarterback has averaged 195 passing yards per game against Belichick, completing 68.8% of his passes. He’s thrown just four touchdowns and three interceptions.
“The quarterback’s played very well, and he’s had tremendous production over the last couple of years,” Belichick said last month. “Led the league in a lot of different categories passing the ball. So, they’ve got a really efficient guy running the offense.”
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. DOLPHINS DEFENSE
New England Patriots offensive coordinator quarterbacks Bill O’Brien stands near quarterback Mac Jones (10) before an NFL preseason football game against the Tennessee Titans Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/John Amis)AP
— Can Mac play mistake-free again?
In New England’s five losses, Mac Jones has been intercepted (at least once). In their two wins, Jones hasn’t been picked off.
Yes, there’s an obvious trend here.
Because the Patriots offense doesn’t boast explosive playmakers, their margin for error is very slim, and when Jones has turned the ball over, New England hasn’t been able to overcome it. Against Buffalo, the quarterback clearly prioritized ball security, and the proof was in the pudding.
“Just sticking to the process. Just trying to find ways to win. It’s doing the little things, doing the hard things, all of that stuff,” Jones said on WEEI this week. “Definitely made some progress there and want to continue to grow in that matter. Like I said, one game doesn’t define you, so just keep working. I’ll say that every week: Just keep working and trust the process.”
— Will the backs build momentum?
The Dolphins front seven dominated New England in the running game during their first meeting, as Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 63 rushing yards on 20 carries. Stevenson didn’t think there was one thing that really stood out from that performance.
“Just execution,” Stevenson said. “Just everybody doing their job. Me and Zeke just getting downhill. Just everybody doing their part. It’s not one thing that we’re doing or one thing we need to do better, but execute.”
Stevenson was an integral part of last week’s game-winning drive, picking up 46 of New England’s 75 yards in the final two minutes. Can he keep that momentum rolling in Miami?
— Which wideouts play?
With the signing of Jalen Reagor, the Patriots now have seven wide receivers on their active roster: DeVante Parker, Pop Douglas, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte and JuJu Smith-Schuster. That means there will be at least one if not two (unhappy) healthy scratches in Miami.
“It’s been a very competitive situation,” Belichick said. “We have a lot of competition at that position. So, everybody’s in it. Obviously, the guys that perform the best play the most. The ones that don’t need to perform better.”
Thornton was doing some work at gunner during the media window at practice this week, so he may be trying to add a special teams element to his game. The bet for Sunday? Parker, Douglas, Bourne, Smith-Schuster and Reagor dress, with Thornton and Boutte serving as scratches.
SPECIAL TEAMS
New England Patriots place kicker Chad Ryland watches a kick during the first half of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Roger Steinman)AP
NE: Chad Ryland
FG: 8-12, PAT: 9-9.
MIA: Daniel Carlson
FG: 6-8, PAT: 30-31.
A stack of money, including ten and one dollar bills sits near a window sill. (Staten Island Advance/Shira Stoll)
Line: Dolphins -9.5.
Over/under: 47
Money line: Dolphins -470, Patriots +360.
Forecasters are calling for temperatures in the mid 80s with a chance of rain showers and winds around 15 mph.
INJURY REPORT
PATRIOTS – OUT
OL Calvin Anderson (DNP)
DOUBTFUL
No Players Listed
QUESTIONABLE
DL Christian Barmore, Knee (LP)
OT Trent Brown, Ankle/Knee (LP)
DB Jonathan Jones, Knee (LP)
OL Vederian Lowe, Ankle (LP)
LB Josh Uche, Ankle/Toe (LP)
CB Shaun Wade, Shoulder (LP)
DL Keion White, Concussion (LP)
DL Deatrich Wise Jr., Shoulder (LP)
DOLPHINS – OUT
No Players Listed.
DOUBTFUL
No Players Listed
QUESTIONABLE
WR River Cracraft, Shoulder (LP)
S Jevon Holland, Concussion (LP)
CB Xavien Howard, Groin (LP)
RB Alec Ingold, Foot (LP)
RB Raheem Mostert, Ankle (LP)
CB Nik Needham, Achilles (LP)
CB Jalen Ramsey, Knee (LP)
CB Cam Smith, Foot (LP)
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
David Andrews: “Honest confession, I’ve never seen Star Wars. None of them, no. I’m not a big space guy.”
PREDICTION
Dolphins 31, Patriots 24
The Patriots hang tougher than expected in Miami, but a late Mac Jones interception leads to a Dolphins victory.
- NFL fans can wager online on Massachusetts sports betting with enticing promo codes from top online sportsbooks. Use the FanDuel Massachusetts promo code and the DraftKings Massachusetts promo code for massive new user bonuses.
