Patriots quest to find franchise QB will be complicated

FOXBOROUGH – Roughly an hour before kickoff Mac Jones ran to the corner of the end zone inside Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt. The Patriots quarterback hugged his mom, dad, and girlfriend.

Everyone was smiling as this overseas trip led up to the Patriots matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. For a moment, this was a joyous occasion.

Nearly five hours later, Jones’ voice cracked as he dejectedly sat at a podium trying to explain the worst performance of his NFL career in the Patriots 10-6 loss. It sounded like he was on the verge of tears. The Patriots quarterback looked broken in Germany on Sunday. He was benched in front of a raucous crowd that included his closest loved ones.

Bill Belichick’s decision to bench Jones for the final 2-minute potential game-winning drive came at a cost. At this point, it’d be surprising to see the third-year player start for the Patriots when they come out of this bye week. It’d also be surprising if the Patriots exercised Jones’ fifth-year option next offseason.

The Patriots and Jones all find themselves at a crossroads. Their 2021 first-round pick, who looked like a franchise quarterback as a rookie, has declined. That’s not completely on Jones as Belichick’s handling of the offensive coaching staff, receiver depth chart and offensive line majorly contributed to Jones not improving.

Had Belichick better handled Josh McDaniels exit or built a competent roster on offense, Jones might have evolved much differently. In the NFL, teams without a capable quarterback don’t have a chance.

That’s why this upcoming offseason will be the most important in recent Patriots history.

Here’s a look at the Patriots’ options with Jones and how they might approach their quarterback position.

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The argument to keep Mac Jones

The options for the Patriots and Jones are clear. They could keep him and either exercise or not pick up his fifth-year option for 2025, which would pay around $20 million. Or they could trade or release the quarterback.

The argument to keep Jones is simple. He’ll have a $4.959 million cap hit in 2024, not a lot for a quarterback, even a backup.

Jones has shown he can be a capable starting quarterback. Given the financials, there’s an argument to be made that the Patriots should allow him to compete and add to the quarterback depth next season.

The Patriots need to better their quarterback depth chart. This season is a prime example of why. Bailey Zappe struggled this past training camp leading to the Patriots cutting him. The team has desperately tried to find better depth by claiming Matt Corral, signing Ian Book to the practice squad, and then signing Will Grier off Cincinnati’s practice squad.

The Patriots could draft a quarterback next spring and allow him to compete with Jones in the offseason. They could also sign or trade for a veteran quarterback and allow him to compete with Jones.

The other argument to keep Jones is that what transpired this season hasn’t completely been on him. He can’t control the receiver depth chart. It’s not his fault Belichick didn’t sign DeAndre Hopkins. It’s also not on him that the team’s offensive line has been porous and Belichick failed to bring in a capable starting right tackle.

The argument to move Mac Jones

It makes zero sense to release Jones this offseason. That’s not good business. Even if his value has plummeted, the Patriots would be better off trading to receive something (anything) back.

Considering Jones has had some success in the NFL, one would think there are a few teams who would like to work with him. At the very least, Jones is going to be a longtime backup in the league. This year has proven how necessary capable backup are.

The argument to trade Jones is relatively simple. This relationship between him and the Patriots is broken. The team failed him when they didn’t hire a proper offensive coordinator to replace McDaniels. That’s led to a situation where Jones is now operating in his third different system in three seasons. That’s a recipe for disaster for any young quarterback.

There is a chance that Jones will have success elsewhere. It might be best for both parties to go their separate ways. Perhaps Kyle Shanahan, who liked Jones in the 2021 draft process, would be willing to trade for the quarterback and have him compete with Brock Purdy. Or maybe Brian Daboll, who worked with Jones at Alabama, would want to bring Jones into New York.

If the Patriots trade Jones, they would likely add another veteran quarterback and then dip into the position at the 2024 NFL Draft.

Trade candidates to replace Jones

There are three ways to find a quarterback. The first is the trade market.

Two teams could potentially trade their starter – Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears.

If the Cardinals land a top pick, they could move Kyler Murray. The 26-year-old missed his team’s first nine games this season due to a torn ACL, suffered against the Patriots in 2023. Murray has had a complicated start to his NFL career.

The athletic quarterback, who was drafted ninth overall by the Oakland Athletics in the 2018 MLB Draft, won the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and then Pro Bowl honors the next two seasons. However, life in Arizona hasn’t been perfect.

After an 11-win season in 2021, Murray signed a five-year, $230 million extension with the Cardinals. An unusual clause in that contract was then leaked with the quarterback being told he must watch at least four hours of tape during game weeks.

The NFL Network reported “The clause states that the player will not receive credit for the independent study if the player ‘is not personally studying or watching the material while it is being displayed or played’ or if the player is involved in activities that could distract his attention (i.e. television, video games or browsing the internet).”

The leak of the clause caused some drama and the team ultimately took it out of his contract. Murray then went 3-8 last season before his knee injury.

Another trade candidate is Chicago’s Justin Fields. The Bears could end up with two of the top picks in next year’s draft after acquiring the Carolina Panthers first-round selection. Fields is another athletic quarterback with intriguing potential. However, he hasn’t lived up to it yet and there are durability concerns.

As a rookie, Fields threw 1,870 yards to go with seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also ran for two touchdowns. That season, he missed two games due to a rib injury. In 2022, he looked dynamic – throwing for 2,224 yards to go with 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for 1,143 yards and adding eight more touchdowns. That year, he also missed two games due to injury.

This year, Fields has missed the last two games due to a shoulder and thumb injury. He’s 1-5 as a starter and hasn’t looked as dominant as he did last season.

Both Murray and Fields are more athletic and have higher ceiling than Jones. Neither are sure things.

Free agents to replace Jones

If the Patriots find the trade options too risky, they could look to add a veteran quarterback in free agency. Unfortunately, the options aren’t great.

The best available player is Kirk Cousins, who recently suffered a torn Achilles. The four-time Pro Bowler has routinely been a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, but he’s also been throwing to some of the best receivers (Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen). Cousins threw for 2,331 yards to go with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Even after missing two starts, he’s still tenth in the NFL in passing. He’ll be 36 next August.

The next best available is Baker Mayfield. The former No. 1 pick is in his first year with Tampa Bay. Mayfield is 4-5 as a starter and has 2,143 yards to go with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is currently 16th in passing.

Ryan Tannehill is another option. The veteran was recently replaced by rookie Will Levis in Tennessee. He was 2-4 as a starter and has 1,128 passing yards to go with two touchdowns and six interceptions. Tannehill is an option to come in and compete if the Patriots add a young quarterback to the mix.

Other options would be veteran backups such as Joshua Dobbs, Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold, or Jameis Winston.

Draft options to replace Jones

The best way to find a franchise quarterback is through the draft, but it’s not always easy.

The 2023 draft is a great example. The Panthers took Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick. He currently has 1,560 yards to go with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s struggling with the No. 2 pick, C.J. Stroud, who looks like an MVP candidate.

Young was the consensus top prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft, a perfect illustration that the draft is a crapshoot.

Right now, the top two quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft are USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye. Both players could go in the top two picks. Both players look like future franchise quarterbacks.

The easiest path for the Patriots is to draft Williams or Maye. Of course, they’re not guaranteed a top-two pick. If not, they’re looking at secondary options in what’s thought to be a loaded quarterback draft class.

Other potential first-round picks include Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Potential borderline first-round/second-round protections are LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Oregon’s Bo Nix, Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, if he declares.

Patriots need luck

It’s hard to find a franchise quarterback.

Ask the Miami Dolphins after Dan Marino or the Buffalo Bills after Jim Kelly. It’s an excruciating process that can quickly go wrong and doom a franchise. The Patriots have been here before. Imagine if the team drafted Marino over Tony Eason in 1983? That choice altered two franchises.

Over 20 years, Belichick had Tom Brady. It was never going to be easy to replace the greatest quarterback of all time. Even when the Patriots drafted a quarterback and it looked like he would succeed, the team ultimately fumbled.

Jones hasn’t developed as anyone had hoped. The Patriots are 2-8. The only thing that will correct this course is finding a top-10 quarterback. As seen above, the options are limited and there’s no easy answer.

Whatever decision the Patriots front office makes in 2024 will either put the Patriots back on a path to redemption or set the franchise back for years to come.