We’re running a mailbag every Thursday during the season. If you have questions on the Patriots, NFL, or want to gripe about past answers, email cmason@masslive.com or tweet @bychrismason. Now let’s get to this week’s questions!
What are reasonable expectations for Christian Gonzalez given the hype shown in the limited time last season? — Tommy S.
Growing into a bona fide No. 1 cornerback is a reasonable expectation for Gonzalez in his second season, and I think the Pro Bowl is a realistic goal.
I’m not expecting Gonzalez to be an All-Pro based on his three-plus games in 2023 (although it was undoubtedly an impressive month). I covered baseball for too long to be a prisoner to small sample sizes, and I don’t think he’ll return as the elite of the elite. But the Pro Bowl is in the realm of possibility. Last year, nine cornerbacks were given berths in the All-Star game, so I think that’s a fair barometer of ascending into Top 10 play. It’s an attainable goal.
Coming off his season-ending shoulder injury, Gonzalez got off to a slow start at training camp this summer and Jerod Mayo appeared to quietly challenge him at one point. The Patriots coach is pleased with how he’s responded and dealt with more responsibility in the secondary.
“He’s handled it well,” Mayo said. “Look, Gonzo is a man of few words, as we all know. But I’m just telling you, he has the skill set to be a premier corner in this league. I’m excited to see his continued growth and see where it goes.”
That growth may lead him to scenic… Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida for the Pro Bowl Games next February. But whether he gets that nod or not, Gonzalez needs to step into a no-doubt No. 1 cornerback role. That should be the floor for him this season.
How would this year’s offense be different if Bill O’Brien decided to stick around? — Matt K.
Significantly.
Under O’Brien, the Patriots ran 39 outside zone plays last year, per PFF Ultimate, dead last (32nd) in the entire league. Though he wasn’t calling plays, Alex Van Pelt’s Browns were in the Top 10 in outside zone calls (9th, 122 plays) and he’s bringing a similar scheme to Foxborough. Cleveland was also Top 10 in play-action percentage (7th, 26.9%), while the Patriots were 26th (19.4%).
To get a bit deeper into the weeds, the Browns ran 65 quarterback boots and sprint outs to New England’s 14, and from a personnel perspective, Cleveland basically lived in 11 (1 back, 1 tight end) — they repped it 72.5% of the time — while the Patriots were at 50.4%.
Brissett’s workload was limited to 11 starts with Van Pelt in 2022, as the Browns waited for Deshaun Watson to come back from a suspension. Despite that lighter workload, the veteran still threw more passes 20+ yards downfield (52) than all the Patriots quarterbacks combined last season (51).
So at the end of the day, a poor result might be the same, but the Patriots will look differently doing it in 2024.
Do the Patriots have enough talent and firepower to escape the AFC basement? Or might it be a very long year for the fans? — Ed. H.
In our yearly MassLive predictions that ran on Wednesday, I picked these Patriots to go 4-13.
I don’t think that’ll be enough to get them out of the AFC East basement. The total AFC conference though? They could escape there. The Titans should also be pretty bad, though they do have the benefit of a slightly softer schedule playing in the AFC South. Either way, it looks like a long year for fans — until Drake Maye enters the picture, anyway.
If the O-line were to actually be somewhat solid this year, where could you see this team finishing? — Marcus S.
Hypothetically, I’d say 7-10. That feels like the ceiling for this team if everything clicks, and the offensive line exceeding expectations would be a massive part of that.
“I’m excited for ‘em,” Jacoby Brissett said on Wednesday afternoon. “I know that’s the big question about us: What’s the offensive line situation? I think that’s the cool part about this league and this game. Everybody can have all these questions and you’ve still gotta go line up and do it… I feel very confident those guys are locking in on the plan, ironing out the details. I’m excited for them to really make their impact on this team because it starts with them. I know what they’re capable of and I’m just excited for them to show all these questions about them.”
However, after seeing their struggles this summer, I’m sticking with 4-13. It doesn’t help that the group still hasn’t locked in a starting five in early September.
With the questions about the offensive line, I think the running game will be a big factor this week. How do you think they’ll fare against Cincinnati? — Miller
I think the Patriots will try to run early and often.
“You can settle games down by running the football, and control the game that way. I think that has to be one of the things that we get done,” Mayo said on Wednesday. “…I think (running the ball is) one of the best things they’ve done throughout the entire camp. Hopefully, that continues going forward.”
Having said that, the Bengals will also know the Patriots are planning to run the football an awful lot and can load the box with defenders accordingly. Ultimately, I think New England will be OK on the ground because Cincinnati’s run defense wasn’t great last season (26th), but I’m not smelling an upset here.
