The Patriots haven’t mathematically clinched a playoff spot yet, but there’s nobody who believes that’s not an eventuality.
The more interesting question for New England now is what seed will they be and how far can they go when they get there.
Several oddsmakers, power rankings and computers have come to different conclusions.
Washington Post
The Post’s computers simulate the season’s remaining games 25,000 times. This is what it is projecting for the Patriots.
Average Wins: 13.5
Makes the Postseason: >99%
Win Division: 88%
Top seed in AFC: 56%
Win Super Bowl: 9% – Third behind Rams and Seahawks
ESPN’s FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts each team’s record, but its formula allows for fractional wins — for example, the Jets are projected to go 4.8-12.2.
The Patriots are projected to go 13.2-38.
It gives the Patriots a:
- 99.9% chance to make the playoffs
- 85.0% chance to win the AFC East
- 71.2% chance to make the Divisional Playoff Round
- 33.8% chance to make the conference finals
- 15.3% to make the Super Bowl
- 6.2 % chance to win the Super Bowl
The Athletic
The Athletic uses Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model to make its best guess for the final playoff picture.
It gives the Patriots a:
- 14-3 final record
- 99% chance to make the playoffs
- 92% chance to win the AFC East
- 59% to earn the AFC’s first-round bye
- 16% chance to win the Super Bowl
No team is given a higher percentage to win the Super Bowl.
The Athletic has a tool to simulate how wins or losses in any of the Patriots’ remaining games would impact their playoff chances. Even if all four remaining games are losses, the Patriots are still 97% to make the playoffs.
PlayoffStatus.com
Make the Playoffs: >99%
Second Round: 79%
Make the AFC Championship: 48%
Make it to Super Bowl: 26%
Win Super Bowl: 12% – (third behind Broncos and Rams, who are each 16%)
BetMGM
The Las Vegas bookmakers are not trying to guess accurately in terms of eventual results as much as they are trying to spread bets around to the most teams, allowing them to make the most money.
BetMGM, the casino’s online sports betting arm, offers bets on the Patriots who are:
- +1100 to win the Super Bowl
- +425 to win AFC Championship
- +110 to be AFC No. 1 seed
- -700 to win the AFC East
- +20000 not to make the playoffs – making the playoffs is no longer available to bet on
MGM also as awards odds with:
- Drake Maye is -120 for AP MVP – that makes him the favorite
- TreVeyon Henderson +1500 AP Offensive Rookie of the Yea
- Mike Vrabel is -235for AP Coach of the Year – favorite
- Stefon Diggs is +6600 AP Comeback Player of the Year
