The second half of the 2024 season begins Friday when the Red Sox play the first game of a three-game series in Los Angeles vs. the Dodgers.
Nick Pivetta will start Friday. Kutter Crawford — who has recorded his last 48 outs without allowing a run — pitches Saturday. Brayan Bello takes the mound Sunday.
Boston (53-42) is 11 games above .500 for the first time in more than two years (since June 26, 2022).
Below are nine predictions for the second half.
1. The Red Sox will make the postseason as the second Wild Card
The Red Sox enter the second half with a two-game lead over the Royals for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. They are just a half game behind Minnesota for the second Wild Card.
Boston is only 4 ½ games behind the first-place Orioles and 3 ½ games behind the second-place Yankees in the AL East.
“That (AL East title) is what we’re shooting for,” manager Alex Cora said Sunday. “The whole talk about the Wild Card and all that, it should be in the past. Let’s think big and see what happens.”
Look for the Red Sox to earn the second Wild Card and finish behind the Orioles (AL East champs) and Yankees (first Wild Card).
2. The Red Sox will buy at the deadline
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said on the NESN broadcast Sunday “this team has put themselves in a position where we have to take them seriously” and “we need to be thinking about opportunities for us to improve the club.”
Look for Boston to buy at the July 30 trade deadline, taking a similar route as it did in 2021 when it avoided trading any top prospects but still landed three helpful players (slugger Kyle Schwarber and relievers Hansel Robles and Austin Davis).
The Red Sox sent Aldo Ramirez, then their No. 13 prospect, to the Nationals for Schwarber. Ramirez has been injured for most of his time in Washington’s system. He has appeared in just nine games, allowing 11 runs in 13 ⅔ innings.
The Sox also traded struggling big leaguer Michael Chavis to Pittsburgh for Davis and minor league reliever Alex Scherff (not a top 30 organizational prospect) to Minnesota for Robles who had four saves and seven holds down the stretch. Scherff struggled in the Twins organization and now pitches in Mexico.
In 2018, the Red Sox traded Santiago Espinal, then a midlevel prospect, for Steve Pearce who went on to win the World Series MVP. Espinal was an All-Star with Toronto in 2022 but he has a .679 OPS as a role player in 416 major league games.
History shows the Red Sox don’t need to trade top five or 10 prospects to supplement their roster.
3. The Red Sox will acquire a starting pitcher
It’s unlikely the Red Sox will trade for a controllable ace like Detroit’s Tarik Skubal or White Sox’ Garrett Crochet. Look for them to pursue a reliable veteran such as Texas’ Andrew Heaney, Texas’ Nathan Eovaldi, Detroit’s Jack Flaherty or Colorado’s Cal Quantrill.
The Red Sox need someone who will give them innings. Tanner Houck already has pitched more innings (117) than he ever has pitched in a major league season. Kutter Crawford (112 ⅔ innings) is nearing his big league career high of 129 ⅓ innings.
Houck is on pace for 199 ⅓ innings. Crawford is on pace for 191 ⅓ innings. Is it sustainable? There should be some concern once they reach the 140-150 inning range. The addition of a pitcher able to eat innings would help.
4. The Red Sox won’t trade Kenley Jansen
Kenley Jansen is the one veteran who the Red Sox might consider trading even if they are in buy-mode.
Trade speculation involving Jansen, a pending free agent, dates back to the offseason. He again was mentioned in a trade rumor from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale on May 26. Nightengale wrote, “The Boston Red Sox plan to trade All-Star veteran closer Kenley Jansen by the trade deadline. He’s earning $16 million this year and the Red Sox have no interest in bringing him back.”
But the Red Sox were a .500 team (26-26) when Nightengale published his report. They now are 53-42. It would be extremely difficult to justify trading one of the game’s top closers even if the return would address an area of weakness on the current roster.
Jansen didn’t make the All-Star team but he’s putting together his best season since 2021 with a 2.16 ERA in 32 outings (33 ⅓ innings).
Liam Hendriks is throwing bullpen sessions as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery but he can’t be relied on to return this season. Boston signed him with 2025 in mind.
Even if Hendriks does pitch this season, it seems unlikely he will give the Red Sox the same production Jansen has. He has pitched just 5 innings in the past two years. As we saw with Chris Sale, it takes some time after a lengthy absence for a pitcher to regain command and stuff.
The uncertainty with setup men Chris Martin (right elbow inflammation) and Justin Slaten (right elbow inflammation) also would make a potential Jansen trade even more inexcusable. The Red Sox’ concern level with Slaten is minimal but Martin was shut down from throwing right before the break.
5. Alex Cora will manage his final game for the Red Sox
How could the Red Sox explain not re-signing Cora if he leads this young roster to the playoffs when expectations were so low?
But the decision is also up to Cora. He will be a free agent and there presumably will be at least a few teams lined up to pay him top dollar like Craig Counsell’s deal (five years, $40 million) with the Cubs. Will Boston be willing to pay that much for its manager?
The Phillies are a perfect fit if they don’t make it far this October. Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and Cora have a terrific relationship.
The Yankees are another fit if Aaron Boone can’t get them to the World Series. New York likely will buy big at the trade deadline and bring in elite talent to supplement their already strong roster. Another failed postseason run could mean the end for Boone in New York.
The Dodgers are another obvious fit if manager Dave Roberts fails to win a World Series with that enormous payroll.
6. Jarren Duran will reach his goal and team’s goal of playing all 162 games
The Red Sox seem determined to start Jarren Duran in all 162 games for two reasons.
First, the All-Star Game MVP is a tone setter at the top of the lineup. That was again evident Sunday when he turned a single into a double to lead off the bottom of the first inning.
“We need him,” Cora said Sunday. “He’s one of our best players. And if he can do it, he can do it. He hasn’t showed any signs of kind of like slowing it down.”
The Red Sox also want Duran setting an example for the organization’s top prospects (such as Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Kristian Campbell) who will start to arrive in the majors within the next year.
“As a group, we need somebody that people look up to. Who better than your leadoff guy that plays every day?” Cora said June 22.
7. Zack Kelly will emerge as a late-inning weapon
Zack Kelly has been one of Boston’s best relievers, despite two stints with Triple-A Worcester. He has a 1.78 ERA (35 ⅓ innings, seven earned runs) in 25 outings.
With uncertainty surrounding Martin and Slaten (see above), Kelly will emerge as a reliable setup man. Kelly — who has held opponents to a .159 batting average — already has appeared in the seventh inning or later in all four of his outings during July.
8. Both Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela will finish top five for AL Rookie of the Year
Rafaela’s OPS has increased nearly 100 points from .595 to .692 in the past month. He has batted .330 with a .356 on-base percentage, .560 slugging percentage, .916 OPS, four homers, seven doubles, two triples, 15 RBIs, 15 runs, three walks and 26 strikeouts in 27 games (104 plate appearances) since June 12.
Cora recently has campaigned for Rafaela’s Rookie of the Year candidacy. His defense in center field has been terrific. He has eight defensive runs saved in 410 innings.
Abreu, meanwhile, has struggled with a .739 OPS since the Red Sox activated him from the injured list June 22. But his bat started to come to life again before the break. He went six his last 16 at-bats (.375) with two homers, three doubles, seven RBIs, two walks and three strikeouts.
9. Masataka Yoshida will bat over .300 in the second half
Masataka Yoshida experienced a difficult first half. He has .696 OPS. But he’s batting .322 with a .375 on-base percentage, .475 slugging percentage, .850 OPS, two homers, three doubles, 12 RBIs, six runs, three walks and 12 strikeouts in 16 games dating back to June 24.
He has the ability to be a .300 hitter. He batted .320 with a .382 on-base percentage, .506 slugging percentage, .887 OPS, 12 homers, 22 doubles, three triples, 53 RBIs, 53 runs, 28 walks and 43 strikeouts in his first 88 games (380 plate appearances) last year before fading off.
