How is it possible that in 2025 the NFL doesn’t have a draft lottery?
On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills will rest most of their important players for most of the game because doing so is the wisest decision for that franchise’s future. But the Patriots who’ll face the Bills’ collection of understudies and practice squad heroes are expected to at least pretend that winning the game is still their primary goal, even though losing would give them the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, a potentially huge benefit for years to come.
Losing and being guaranteed the No. 1 overall pick either nets the Patriots a potential superstar or a chance to trade down and fix several problems — all that for losing one meaningless game in January. The NFL offers no incentives for playoff-eliminated teams to try to win. A lottery makes more sense in NFL than in the NBA, NHL and MLB which all already have one.
With just 17 games, there are obviously going to be teams finishing with identical records who haven’t played each other. The Patriots are one of four teams with a 3-13 record. Are they actually the worst of them?
Maybe? Maybe not. There’s no real way to tell.
The NFL even de-emphasizes head-to-head matchups when determining draft order.
Last year the Patriots and Commanders had the same record. Washington beat New England in Foxborough, but the Commanders drafted second and the Patriots picked third because Washington’s strength of schedule was worse as if that’s somehow a more accurate indicator than playing on the field.
If Drake Maye had been a bust, Patriots fans would have forever lamented losing Jayden Daniels because of a few percentage points. This year, it works in New England’s favor, but that doesn’t make it right.
Simply put, the Jets are terrible and the Dolphins underacheived — partially because Tua Tagovailoa was out. Their shared struggles and the fact that the Patriots played each of them twice directly led to New England having the weakest schedule among teams near the top of the draft picture, which put put them in position to pick first if they lose to the Bills on Sunday.
With a lottery, each of the three-win teams should have the same number of ping pong balls and the four-win teams shouldn’t be that much different. Not every non-playoff team even needs to be in the lottery either. Teams with eight or more wins — who are all still in playoff contention this year — don’t need to be included.
The NFL Draft Lottery, like everything surrounding America’s favorite sport, could make for a much-watched television event. It should be soon after the regular season so teams would know who they’re scouting during the Senior Bowl and other showcase events. The NFL could put it on Netflix or Amazon, throwing another bone to one of the streamers, who they’re trying to help build subscribers.
With a lottery, the Patriots still wouldn’t have a tangible reason to play Drake Maye or the rest of their starters against the Bills. But they wouldn’t have an obvious tangible reason not to. Play him and work on some things he’s been struggling with or sit him and evaluate Joe Milton. It would be a more organic football choice with nobody analyzing if they’re trying hard enough once the game starts.
It would eliminate the temptation for Stephen Ross to offer Brian Flores $100,000 bonuses for losses like he did in hopes of getting Joe Burrow.
Of course, there should be a lottery. It’s absurd that there isn’t one already.
Follow MassLive sports columnist Matt Vautour on Twitter at @MattVautour424.
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