Sports Betting Dime provides exclusive sports betting content to MassLive.com, including real-time odds, picks, analysis and sportsbook offers to help sports fans get in on the action. Please wager responsibly.
If the oddsmakers at online betting sites are on the money, then things are about to go from bad to worse for the New England Patriots.
The Pats were 8-9 last season, the second time in three seasons that the club has endured a losing campaign. But New England has suffered double digits in the loss column since going 5-11 during the 2000 campaign, Bill Belichick’s first as head coach of the team.
Projections are that the Patriots will be losing at least 10 games this season. Online betting site DraftKings is setting the NFL win total for New England at 6.5.
DraftKings Massachusetts
$150
Bonus Bets!
21+. Physically present in MA. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. First-time depositors only who have not already redeemed $200 in bonus bets via OH or MA prelaunch offer. Min. $5 deposit. Min $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at http://draftkings.com/ma.
Sports Betting Dime managing editor Matt McEwan is being a little more kind when it comes to the NFL record predictions for New England, which he calculates via his proprietary SBD Win Probability formula.
McEwan derives his win probability calculation by taking the opening line odds posted for all NFL games from Week 1-18 He uses the betting lines to mathematically predict each NFL team’s record for the 2023 NFL season.
McEwan is projecting an 8-9 season for the Patriots. Based on his math, the Patriots have a 19.45% of finishing with eight wins. However, there’s just a 6.23% chance of them winning 11 games.
McEwan’s SBD Win Probability calculation is setting New England with a season win total of 7.5. That’s slightly better than the oddsmakers, but still would mean that the Patriots are headed for their third losing season in four years.
AFC East will be tough sledding
There may be no deeper division in the NFL than the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills are an elite NFL franchise, winners of the past three division crowns. Coming off a playoff season, the Miami Dolphins are a team on the rise. In the offseason, the New York Jets added three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback.
Amidst this deep talent pool, the Patriots find themselves awash in the shallow end. For years, New England was the gold standard, the team to beat in the NFL. Between 2009-19, the Pats won 11 successive AFC East titles. This season, their best hope may be in trying not to finish in last place for the first time since that aforementioned 2000 campaign.
Jones not keeping up
The Jets have a future Hall of Famer under center in Rodgers. Both the Bills (Josh Allen) and Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa) are situated with young, exciting quarterbacks.
New England has Mac Jones at QB. Ask any Patriots fan and they tell you that Jones isn’t keeping up with the other starters at his position in the AFC East. He regressed as a sophomore following a solid rookie season.
FanDuel Sportsbook MA $150 BONUS BETS!
21+ and present in MA. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwtihdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com..
The Pats are 25-25 since QB Tom Brady left town in 2019. Now, no one is saying Jones has to be Brady for New England to succeed. Still, he’ll need to be much more like his rookie self than his second-year performance.
Perhaps getting rid of the two-headed monster of failed head coaches Matt Patricia and Joe Judge at offensive coordinator and replacing them with the experienced Bill O’Brien will make all the difference in the world for Jones.
Can defense save Patriots?
The defense never rests in New England and that unit will again be expected to carry the day if the the Patriots are to overachieve in 2023. In each of the past 11 seasons, the New England defense has ranked among the top 10 in yards allowed or points allowed.
Retired safety Devin McCourty will be on the only starter gone from last season’s unit. New England leaned heavily toward the defense early in the NFL Draft, spending the club’s first two picks on defenders.
Odds stacking up against New England
It’s not that the Patriots are a bad team, it’s just that the other three clubs in the AFC East all figure to be really good. The schedule maker has done the Pats no favors. Based on strength of schedule tabulations, New England will be playing the NFL’s toughest slate in 2023.
The Patriots haven’t won a playoff game since beating the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII in 2019. Perhaps the saddest indictment of what not so long ago was the model NFL franchise is that there’s just nothing to get excited about when it comes to New England.
BetMGM Massachusetts $1,000 FIRST BET OFFER
Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21 years of age or older to wager. MA Only. New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire 7 days from issuance. In Partnership with MGM Springfield. Play it smart from the start with GameSense. GameSenseMA.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org.
Will Jones bounce back? Can Rhamondre Stevenson be a consistent feature back? Is tight end Mike Gesecki, signed from Miami, about to become Belichick’s latest reclamation project?
New England is facing so many questions. And Patriots fans might not like the answers.
If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Massachusetts Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org to speak with a trained specialist to receive support. Specialists are available 24/7. Services are available in multiple languages and are free and confidential.
MA Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly Disclaimer:
Hope is here: Call (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org. Play it smart from the start with Game Sense.
21+. Physically present in MA. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. First-time depositors only who have not already redeemed $200 in bonus bets via OH or MA prelaunch offer. Min. $5 deposit. Min $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at http://draftkings.com/ma.
Terms and conditions at bet.WynnBET.com. Must be 21 or older to participate. Get set before you bet – talk to GameSense first! LiveChat @ GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.
