FORT MYERS, Fla. — Andrew Bailey’s job is both simple and complicated at once.
Between now and March 27 when teams must finalize their major league rosters, it’s on Bailey and, of course, Alex Cora and Craig Breslow, to select the five starters who make up the Red Sox’ starting rotation.
The decisions will naturally be performance-based. This is a meritocracy, after all. But the evaluating process is complicated in spring training. It would be difficult to make decisions based on a three-inning outing in a Grapefruit League game.
Pitchers are experimenting with new pitches for their repertoires, building arm strength and endurance, and tweaking their mechanics. It’s hardly fair to judge their regular season roles on the basis of a few starts under less than normal circumstances.
And yet, decisions have to be made and time is short.
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“I think generally, over a long period of time, there are certain things we want to lean on heavily, in terms of the process of things,” said Bailey. “Results in spring training are a little nuanced. I think things like first-pitch strike, early in ahead counts and put-away options…there’s a few different things. Limiting walks is obviously a huge thing. And then obviously, we’re working on a few different things that we want to see if our pitches can hit on in these games.
“They’re taking new pitches or new usage patterns into games and that takes some times to unravel and kind of get comfortable. If you’re zooming out, it’s really heard to put a lot of stock into one or even a few outings in spring training. But I think if we can start hitting on some of the things and have a longer-term view of it — ‘OK, he can do this…’….those are the things we’re looking for.”
For now, it would seem that Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are assured spots in the starting rotation, with Nick Pivetta having a leg up on a third spot. That leaves Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh WInckowski battling for the final two slots.
What are the pitchers told about the significance of in-game Grapefruit League performance?
“We try to hold them accountable and have them understand where they’re at,” offered Bailey, “and not holding the ball from guys. It’s like, ‘Hey, we have to be better here,’ and them understanding that they are in a competition.”
At the same time, Bailey likes that a brotherhood has been formed among the contenders for the rotation, where the pitchers are rooting for each other and focused on team success over individual fulfillment.
“They’re pulling from the same rope already,” said Bailey. “You talk to Garrett, you talk to Wink, and it’s like, ‘I want to just win.’ So while there is a competition for the starting rotation, I think there’s an understanding that we want to be holding the trophy, get to the playoffs and see what happens. Look, there’s obviously financial incentives for starting and those aren’t going anywhere.
“But they know where they stand from a process standpoint. If they’re giving up damage (in a game), we can adjust that and not hold them to that a high standard right now.”
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Along the way, the Red Sox collect data from Trackman and other tools that measure the amount of break, ride, run or other movement. But that information is more about measuring improvement rather than a critical data point used to determine who’s in and who’s out of the rotation.
“That (data) is definitely more for environments and hammering out adjustments and working on specifics,” said Bailey. “And we definitely want to carry that over into the games. But from a competition standpoint, we’re only going to go into the season with a certain amount of starters and a certain amount of pitchers on the roster and those impressions certainly do matter.”
Not all spring training starts are created equal. Road games are far more likely to result in the starting pitcher facing a major league-caliber lineup; home games, especially when the visiting team comes from two hours or more away, will feature more prospects and players who aren’t as established.
That means only so much weight can be placed on actual game results.
“It is really easy to be skewed by spring training stats,” agreed Breslow. “I think with pitching in particular, the information that we capture stabilizes really, really quickly and is generally being pretty predictive of what we anticipate it being in-season. But anytime we’re talking about stretching guys out and potentially asking them to take on more volume than they we otherwise would have, we can monitor things like the ability to be effective multiple times throughout the lineup, the ability to maintain stamina and keep the stuff sharp.
“So there’s (questions like): Is this pitcher capable of handling a starter’s workload? Is he capable of handling a starter’s workload in the major leagues? How does that complement the rest of the team and rotation and bullpen construction? So, I think there are a host of variables in play here. Typically, these things become fairly readily identifiable over the course of the spring, but not necessarily strictly or exclusively because of spring training performance.”
According to Cora, back in January, he and Bailey and others associated with the pitching program met and went over expectations for the spring and how the rotation would be selected.
“We were talking about competition for center field and competition for other positions, too,” he said. “How do we do that? How do we make decisions based on (someone going) 6-for-10 in spring training against kids from Double A. That’s something we have to do with (Ceddanne) Rafaela — the quality of the at-bats, (choosing between) is it worth it to for him to break camp with us or better to start off in Worcester? It’s the same with the pitching staff.
“Obviously, they will take notice of the metrics and how we feel about them sustaining their stuff over five or six innings. There’s a lot of information being provided and there’s a lot of information that we as an organization can study. And then we make decisions.”
“There’s a lot of talent in that (clubhouse),” said Bailey, echoing a sentiment he expressed at Winter Weekend. “We just have to get the best version of themselves going.”
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It’s late February, and pitching help remains available on the free agent market. Here’s what’s known about the Red Sox and free agent Jordan Montgomery:
As a matter of course, an industry source said the Red Sox have maintained contact with Montgomery’s representative, Scott Boras. But even this late in the process, Montgomery’s asking price has not dropped to the point where the Red Sox could fit him into their budget, which has been in place for some time.
Frankly, while some in the media characterize the Red Sox as the most likely landing spot, that view is not at all shared internally. The thinking goes like this: by the time Montgomery lowered his demands to the point where he could reasonably fit into the Red Sox’ budget, he’d also be suddenly affordable to a number of other clubs, many — most? — of which would represent a better chance to win than does Boston.
For Montgomery, the attraction of signing with the Red Sox would be family-related. His wife, a dermatologist, is serving a residency at a Boston hospital. But the lure of a far more lucrative deal elsewhere would likely override that.
Finally, it remains a stretch that Boras would capitulate to the calendar and take a reduced offer merely to save face. Boras also represents several others still available — Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman — and knowing that all eyes are on his clients and their willingness to accept reduced deals, it’s hard to imagine him settling.
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Like everything else about the game on and off the field, the nature of spring training has evolved. Now that players train nearly year-round and arrive in camp already in peak condition, the approach is far more focused and specific.
Breslow came into his first spring training as chief baseball officer with some definite ideas about how to maximize the time the team has leading up to the start of the regular season.
“We’re trying to create a real attention on development,” said Breslow recently, “and ensuring that every player knows what they’re working on and what they need to accomplish over the next four to six weeks and over the next seventh months. We’re having these individual meetings and, credit to our coaching staff, players are walking in and being asked, ‘Hey, what do you hope to accomplish over the next to four to six weeks?’
“And the players are saying, ‘I’m looking to do this with this pitch shape,’ or ‘I’m looking to increase the usage of this,’ or ‘I’m looking to make better swing decisions on these types of counts.’ I think that’s a credit to our coaching staff and the constant communication they’ve had with our players. And that’s what you have to do in order to realize the steps forward that we need our guys to take.”
Breslow experienced 17 spring trainings himself with eight different teams, and noted that baseball had historically been guilty of painting all players with the same broad brush.
“I don’t think there have been enough clearly defined goals,” he said. “I think we’ve been slow to appreciate that spring training means something different for every player. There are players who are there to (just) prepare for the season and they know what that looks like; there are players there to get experience in spring training and get exposure to the major league staff; and there are players in-between who are there to compete for roster spots.
“But every players serves to get better in spring training, and for so long, it’s been, ‘Oh, we’re going to work on defense.’ Or ‘What are you looking to get better at?’ ‘Pitching’ Or “Hitting.’ Well, that’s not good enough. We have technology, we have data that allows us to pinpoint precisely how we need to get better on defense or how we can get better as a pitcher or as a hitter.
“So creating really well-defined goals and development plans around every player and ensuring that we’ve got our hitting, pitching, baserunning and defense coaches aligned with those plans, but also our medical staff, our strength and conditioning staff, our analytics staff, all speaking the same language so that we can ensure that every contribution is additive and not either diluting or worse yet, confusing.”
Breslow concedes that the Red Sox may be behind the curve when it comes to adapting their spring training principles.
“For some teams, candidly us being one of them, we’re evolving,” he said. “Other organizations have been early adopters. And when you about development, what better time than when you have all of your coaches, all of your departments housed in one place for six weeks, sometimes even more, and you’ve got this runway where you’re not playing games where that are meaningful in terms of the wins and losses counting toward something.
“So those organizations that have failed to take advantage of this opportunity are behind and those that are kind of leading as it relates to player development have recognized that for a really long time and made the most of this opportunity.”
