FORT MYERS, Fla. — The Red Sox are officially open for business in 2024, but there are far more questions than answers regarding their upcoming season.
Here are eight of them as spring training gets underway. There could be many, many more.
1) Who wins the spots in the starting rotation?
Assuming good health throughout the spring, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito are set. After that? It’s anyone’s guess.
There is no shortage of candidates, including Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski. It’s likely that three of those five will start the year in the rotation, but the competition will be wide open.
Other than Winckowski, who struggled mightily as a starter in 2022 before excelling in a relief role last year, the rest have had flashes of success as big league starters, but none has shown the necessary consistency. Can three of them put together a solid month in Grapefruit League action to win jobs as starters? By default, the answer will have to be yes, since it doesn’t appear the Red Sox are showing much aggressiveness toward the free agent market and the remaining options still available.
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2) Will Alex Cora’s lame duck status become a distraction?
Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has shown no inclination to getting an extension done before the start of the season. That’s understandable on Breslow’s part — he wants to see how the two work together before committing to anything long-term.
But it won’t take long for the speculation to start. One protracted losing streak in May or June will get the talk going. Firing Cora in the middle of the season won’t be the preferred path for Breslow; it will limit his choices to replace Cora and essentially force him to appoint an interim manager for the rest of the way before commencing a more fully realized search after the season.
Even if Cora makes it to the end of the season, however, his future will be the subject of constant speculation. And Cora’s surprising non-answer earlier this week — asked if he wanted to remain manager of the Red Sox past this year, Cora said, “I don’t want to talk about it” — is only going to add intrigue to the whole equation.
3) What will the outfield deployment look like?
Now that it’s known that Masataka Yoshida will get the majority of the DH at-bats, the Sox have four other outfield candidates — Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela — to divvy up the playing time in left, center and right.
It’s unlikely that there will be an everyday alignment; this is not Rice, Lynn and Evans by any stretch. Duran can play left and center. Rafaela, it’s been revealed, will only make the team is he’s getting most of the playing time in center. O’Neill is accomplished enough to play all three. And Abreu seems the most likely to claim the majority of games in right.
But there will be interchangeable combinations, as Cora looks to gain platoon advantages. It would help if the Sox had more of a righthanded presence in the outfield; for the time being, Rafaela and O’Neill are the only righty hitters, along with fifth outfielder Rob Refsnyder. An addition is still possible.
4) Can the defense show improvement?
Trevor Story’s return to full health and availability from the start of the season will help settle the infield greatly. For all his struggles the last two years with the bat, Story remains a plus defender. It’s expected that Vaughn Grissom will represent an upgrade over the many contributors at second base last season.
The problem comes at the corner infield spots. Rafael Devers took a step backward last year in the field while Triston Casas struggled unexpectedly at first. Casas is young, and improvement shouldn’t be hard to achieve.
The outfield is more capable, too, with the addition of O’Neill and at least the possibility of Rafaela winning the center field spot.
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5) Can some lefties emerge?
For now, the Red Sox don’t have a lefty starting candidate, with all seven of the principal contenders for the rotation throwing righthanded.
Barring an outside acquisition, it’s will likely remain that way.
But even the bullpen leans heavily righthanded. Brennan Bernardino is the only southpaw with a solid chance of making the Opening Day roster. Chris Murphy, Joe Jacques and Brandon Walter are on the 40-man roster, but each is a distinct longshot to make the club for the start of the year. The three are viewed as Triple A depth.
If this is a concern, Breslow hid it well in his first remarks this spring. “We’ve got righthanded pitchers with weapons vs. lefties,” he said. “That’s ultimately what we’re chasing: outs. In a perfect world, would we balance out both the lineup and rotation and bullpen? Potentially. But at the end of the day, we’re chasing wins and we do that by scoring runs and preventing them.”
That sounds fine philosophically. But in the Red Sox’ own division alone, they have to find someway to pitch to Anthony Rizzo, Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Brandon Lowe and others in big spots.
6) Will any rookies surprise?
The Big Three — Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer — aren’t ready, though late-season debuts can’t be ruled out for any. But the trio is too highly valued for the Red Sox to rush any of them to the big leagues at the start of the season. They’re far better off repeating Double A, then eventually graduating to Worcester.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, those three represent the closest impact prospects.
Technically, both Rafaela and Abreu retain their rookie status. But we’re talking about players who have yet to reach the big leagues coming out of nowhere this spring to make the Opening Day roster, and it’s impossible to envision that happening for now.
7) Where will the power come from?
The Red Sox finished 10th in the American League and 18th in MLB in homers last year with 182.
But over the offseason, the Red Sox lost Justin Turner (23 homers), Adam Duvall (21 homers) and Alex Verdugo (13 homers). That’s 57 homers, or almost one-third of the total from a year ago.
It might be expected that Triston Casas (24 homers) and Masataka Yoshida (15 homers) will increase their output after their first full MLB seasons. But no one knows about the expectations for power from the likes of Abreu, Duran and, should he make the team, Rafaela.
The Sox have been featured an attack based more on doubles than homers in recent seasons. More of that might be expected in 2024.
8) Who will hit leadoff?
There are no obvious answers here, either. Duran might be the best choice for now, but at this point, there’s no guarantee that he’s going to be an everyday contributor — and that’s if he isn’t traded elsewhere.
Newcomer Vaughn Grissom has terrific bat-to-ball skills, above-average speed and the ability to get on base. But it’s highly doubtful that the Red Sox want to put too much on his plate before he’s established himself and Grissom has just 216 major league at-bats to his credit. Better for the Sox to hit him elsewhere until he’s more comfortable.
Rafaela? Too soon, especially since it’s unknown whether he’ll make the club out of camp. Given that there are still some legitimate questions about his readiness, the last thing he needs is the additional pressure of hitting at the top of the lineup.
The best choice might be Abreu, who compiled a .388 OBP in limited play last year. It appears as though Abreu is going to be given every chance to be the everyday right fielder, and lacking alternatives, he may represent the best choice.
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According to Atlanta Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, the trade which sent Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox in exchange for Chris Sale was a difficult one for him to make, but one he ultimately thought he had to consummate.
“It was a tough one and it was one that we had a hard time with. But I thought with where we were as a team, it was one that we had to make,” Anthopoulos said. “It’s painful. This one hurts. That was challenging because (Grissom) can be a core piece. The tough part for us was that he was blocked. Because of the person, the makeup and the energy he brings, I think he’s got a chance to be a leader one day. We had (second baseman Ozzie) Albies under control for four years, Austin Riley for a long time, (Jarred) Kelenick, we think, is a lefthanded bat. And to send Vaughn back to (Triple A) wouldn’t have been fair to him after a 1.000 OPS (there).
“We would have put him in a Chris Taylor role. But at the end of the day, this was the best thing for his career. But it’s painful because this guy is going to have a really long, productive career. And this is one where he was blocked. The Red Sox are definitely going to be rewarded. I expect him to do great things there.”
Asked what the Sox were getting in Grissom, Anthopoulos said: “Great hitter, phenomenal bat-to-ball skills. He’s going to hit, no doubt about it. You can take it to the bank. Phenomenal teammate, high energy, charismatic. He’ll be beloved by fans, media and his teammates. You bring up his name to anybody and they will smile immediately, guaranteed. I was just talking about him with Ronald Acuna Jr. The minute I said ‘Vaughn Grissom,’ massive smile from ear-to-ear. He walks in a room, he lights up a room.”
Anthopoulos said that, contrary to speculation, Sale didn’t demand a restructuring of his contract to approve the deal. As a player with 10-5 rights, he had the right to block it, but didn’t. It was the Braves who proposed the new contract.
Originally, Sale was due $27.5 million for 2024 with a $20 million team option for 2025. Instead, the Braves ripped up the deal and gave Sale $16 million for 2024 with $22 million guaranteed for 2025 and an $18 million club option for 2026.
“After we got him, the more we thought about it, we want this guy to be a mainstay,” said Anthopoulos. “The second year of club control was a must. If he had just one year of control, we wouldn’t have done it. We ultimately said, ‘We feel strongly that this guy is going to be here. We’re willing to bet on him.’ Taking away the uncertainty for him, (where he’s thinking) ‘Hopefully, they’re going to pick up my option, but I don’t know.’ Now, it’s ‘I’m here for two for sure, a chance to be here for three and beyond.’
“It was risky. We didn’t need to do it. We could have easily just played it out and revisited it next offseason. But we just thought it was important for him. He didn’t ask for it, he didn’t request it. He was happy to be here. We just broached the topic, he was open to it and we were able to do a deal that made sense for both sides and get a third year of control. I know he’s going to be 37 (by then), but were hopeful this is a Charlie Morton-like path for him and we’re optimistic he’s still here three years from now.”
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According to a major league source, the Red Sox expressed some interest in acquiring infielder Jorge Polanco at the start of the offseason.
The Red Sox, who were in search of someone to play second base, checked in with the Minnesota Twins to signal their interest, but talks never got beyond that introductory stage.
Eventually, the Sox went in another direction for their second base needs, sending Sale to the Braves in exchange for Grissom while Polanco was eventually shipped to the Seattle Mariners last month by the Twins, who hauled in four young players in return.
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It’s mid-February, and you could construct an All-Star team with the unsigned free agents, including starters Blake Snell and Jordon Montgomery, outfielder Cody Bellinger, third baseman Matt Chapman, and DH J.D. Martinez.
In no other sport do free agents take so long to commit, and commissioner Rob Manfred is frustrated by the lack of action.
“We would prefer to have a free agent signing period, ideally probably in December with a deadline that allows people to make their deals and get things settled,” said Manfred at MLB’s Spring Training Media Day. “We actually made a proposal to that affect to the MLBPA. They were not receptive. I think that with the system we have right now, one of the tactics that’s available to player representatives is to stretch out the negotiations in the belief that they’re going to get a better deal. That’s part of the system and there’s not a lot we can do about it.
“Certainly, from an aspirational perspective, we’d rather have two weeks of flurried activity in December, preferably around the Winter Meetings, where (the media) are all there to write about it and we all get excited about the upcoming year. That would be a project in the next (collective bargaining agreement).”
