According to several reports this week, the Red Sox intend to be serious players in the Juan Soto Sweepstakes.
Both the New York Post and ESPN reported that the Red Sox have plans to meet with Soto and his representatives in southern California this week. Both outlets reported that the Sox are among seven or eight bidders for the outfielder, with the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays among others — including perhaps even the small-market Tampa Bay Rays — also in the running.
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For Red Sox fans who have witnessed the team scale back its spending since 2019 and largely sit out bidding for the game’s biggest stars, the team’s interest in Soto is the latest example of a renewed commitment to investing in the roster. In the lead-up to this news, there were reports from the recent GM Meetings — from both agents and executives rival teams — that the Red Sox were taking a far more aggressive approach to the offseason than in recent years.
The Red Sox are known to have engaged in trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for pitcher Garrett Crochet, while also in getting in contact with the representatives for elite free agents Max Fried, Blake Snell and others.
The news of their interest in Soto, however, was somewhat shocking, for two reasons: First, Soto, at 26, is expected to land a deal in excess of $500 million, with some predicting he could come close to or match the $700 million mega-deal signed by Shohei Ohtani last year. Second, as enticing as Soto may be, the team’s primary needs this winter are pitching-related.
Here are nine thoughts about the Red Sox and Soto:
* It’s doubtful the Red Sox were the source of this leak.
As a general rule, teams don’t publicize their intentions and would rather word not get out about their negotiations. Such practices often backfire, as it serves to increase expectations among a club’s fan base and puts additional pressure on them to land the player.
The fact that both the Post and ESPN had the entire list of teams planning to meet with Soto suggests that that information was provided by Soto’s side of things. Scott Boras and Co. would likely love to convey the fact Soto is much sought after, and teams who don’t seriously pursue the free agent are in danger of losing him to a rival.
*….Which doesn’t necessarily mean that every team planning to meet with Soto is willing to meet the asking price.
It’s possible that there’s some eyewash involved here. While not every team wishes its business to become public, there is a benefit to having your fan base know you’re, at minimum, doing your due diligence on star players.
As previously noted, the Red Sox’ most glaring offseason need is pitching — both in the rotation and the bullpen. Knowing Soto’s expectations, are the Red Sox really willing to spend more than a half billion on a luxury item and then spend big on a No. 1 starter or bullpen help?
For a team that has not spent more than $140 million on a free agent since its last championship six years ago, that may seem hard to believe.
* It never hurts to listen.
Even if the Red Sox are uncertain about their ability or willingness to sign Soto, it costs nothing to find out what he has to say and to meet with him.
This isn’t some blind bidding process where, if they’re not careful, they’re going to end up owning a player they don’t want. Maybe Soto will provide them with some valuable insight into how the team is viewed by others around the game. Maybe they’ll learn something about themselves that they didn’t previously know.
Either way, they’re not committing to anything other than a meeting.
* Then again, the Red Sox would seem to have better things to do than to assemble their big decision-makers and fly across the country just for show.
This isn’t a simple Zoom call that various executives can participate in from their offices. It requires a cross-country flight and a marshaling of resources. The Red Sox will need a detailed presentation for Soto to convince him to sign with Boston. It’s doubtful that Sam Kennedy, Craig Breslow, Alex Cora, Pete Fatse and perhaps even principal owner John Henry are interested in clearing their schedule for two days just to hoodwink fans into thinking they’re serious players.
And surely, the Red Sox understand the parameters in place. They know it’s going to take a minimum of $500-$600 million to even get Soto’s attention. It’s not like they can show up and proffer a contract for $350 million and sell him on the fact that that that will make him the highest-paid Red Sox player of all time.
* The Red Sox have a long list of past Dominican stars who can sell Soto on the team’s legacy when it comes to Latino players.
Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are on a short list of the biggest MLB stars ever to come from the D.R. Martinez and Ortiz are in the Hall of Fame; meanwhile, Ramirez could well be the closest thing to a right-handed version of Soto — patient and lethal.
They can sell Soto on their experiences in Boston, how they became iconic stars with the franchise and remind him of what it’s like to become part of championship Red Sox teams. Ortiz, who lives near Soto in the winter, can be a particularly effective salesman in the recruiting pitch.
* The Red Sox could also sell Soto on following Ted Williams’ legacy.
Soto isn’t just any hitter. He’s not merely a slugger. He’s more like a hitting savant, with uncanny knowledge of the strike zone, an unmatched ability to get on base, and the power to do serious damage when he finds his pitch.
Sound familiar?
Williams is widely acknowledged as the game’s greatest hitter of all-time. They might not have the success as a franchise that the Yankees can boast, but the Sox could entice him with prospect of playing in the same ballpark, standing in the same batter’s box and playing the same position as Williams once did. That could be a powerful pitch.
* Yes, the Red Sox are already too lefthanded. But no, that doesn’t matter.
As currently constituted, the Red Sox have five everyday players who are lefty hitters — Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, WIlyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida. Somewhere, in the near future, they could add three more in Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer.
But none of that matters when you’re discussing an elite hitter like Soto. For one thing, Soto can hit lefty or righty pitching with equal success. In his career, he has a career 1.000 OPS against righthanded pitching and a .857 OPS against lefties. Last year, the difference was almost negligible: .999 against righties and .969 against lefties.
Meanwhile, adding Soto would make it easier to deal off a lefty hitter (or two) to fulfill their pitching needs.
* Unlike with other teams, Soto might be lured by the potential of having this be his team.
Star players have egos. If Soto re-signs with the Yankees, he’ll still be only the second-biggest star behind Aaron Judge. If he signs with the Dodgers, he’ll be behind Shohei Ohtani and perhaps Mookie Betts.
The Red Sox, however, could pitch him on the fact that he would instantly become the face of the franchise. Sure, they already have Devers, but the third baseman isn’t always comfortable in the spotlight and might welcome the prospect of another player to become the focal point.
* Don’t discount the age factor.
In the last six years, the Red Sox have been willing to pay two players deals worth $300 million or more: Rafael Devers inked to an 10-year, $313.5 million contract and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, for whom they unsuccessfully bid $300 million. Know what they had in common? Youth. Devers was 26 at the time while Yamamoto was 25.
Soto just turned 26 last month, which means he could sign a 14-year deal soon and not reach 40 until the very tail end of the contract.
The Red Sox are big into actuarial tables. They don’t want to be committed to a lengthy contract to a player who is nearing the end of his prime. Soto has four full seasons to play before turning 30, and that could be a key factor in their willingness to go a financial neighborhood they’ve never before visited.
