Super Bowl LVIII is a week away. The chances of Andy Reid and or Kyle Shanahan being scrutinized over a pivotal coaching decision due to analytics is almost a given.
Count on one or both of these esteemed coaches making a fourth down decision that will come under fire on championship Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers.
The NFC Championship game a week ago triggered an analytics firestorm. It’s actually become a familiar refrain during the postseason.
In this instance, Lions coach Dan Campbell was called out for some of his analytics-based decision-making.
The uber-aggressive Campbell loves going on fourth down, and won’t apologize for possibly costing the Lions a trip to the Super Bowl thanks to passing on field goals en route to a 34-31 loss.
BetMGM BET $5, GET $158! BONUS BETS
STATES: MA, KY, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21 years of age or older to wager. MA Only. New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire 7 days from issuance. In Partnership with MGM Springfield. Play it smart from the start with GameSense. GameSenseMA.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org.
The problem here, as in other sports, is the penchant for coaches becoming too reliant on analytics and depending solely on what statistics dictate in certain situations.
That, in turn, sparks an avalanche of second-guessing.
In that way, analytics have become both a blessing and a curse in sports.
Mostly, it’s become a convenient excuse for poor decision-making.
NFL coaches are let off the hook going on fourth down and not converting because analytics supported the move. Baseball managers aren’t blamed for pulling a dominating starting pitcher after going through the order once, then losing the game when the relievers flop.
Coaches and managers hide behind the data.
Only, it’s not that simple.
Analytics can certainly be useful, but not at the expense of taking the feel out of coaching decisions. Momentum is such an important factor. The pulse of a team, understanding how emotions factor in, is another.
In football, there’s a time to go for the jugular. And a time to just kick the field goal.
The best coaches can navigate between what the statistics say, and what the brain says, so it’ll be interesting to see how Patriots first-year coach Jerod Mayo handles the analytics minefield.
Bill Belichick wasn’t a fan. That’s no secret.
The hope here is Mayo won’t be quite as down on analytics as Belichick, but not quite as reliant as other coaches, with Campbell and former Chargers coach Brandon Staley among those who live and die by statistics.
Based on an answer he gave to WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show regarding analytics, Mayo has the proper perspective. He suggested it being a tool in the toolbox, but certainly not gospel.
“I think there’s a place for analytics, for sure,” Mayo said. “At the same time, you would like the analytics to confirm your gut, and sometimes it goes both ways.”
Coaches shouldn’t ignore their instincts, bury what their eyes are seeing on the field just because analytics support a different course of action.
Former Patriot Devin McCourty summed up that dynamic during a recent “Eye on Foxborough” podcast.
“You want to be aggressive, but you don’t want to be aggressive to the point of being stupid,” said McCourty. “To me, it’s that simple. Coach Belichick used to tell us all the time, players win games. Coaches lose them.
“You don’t want to be the coach that goes out there and loses the game for your team before they can even play a play.”
Blindly adhering to analytical data leads to just that.
Last Sunday, Campbell’s thirst to display aggressiveness – going twice on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal – outweighed common sense. His Lions had a chance to be up 27-10 against the 49ers with just under seven minutes left in the third quarter. Instead, they wound up tied 24-24 with roughly three minutes to go in that quarter.
In the first instance, Josh Reynolds dropped a pass that would have given the Lions a first down after going on fourth down. On the second, with Campbell electing to go for it on fourth-and-3 from the 49ers 30-yard line, down 27-24 with 7:32 remaining in the fourth quarter, bordered on insanity.
For starters, the call was for a deep pass. And Jared Goff’s heave to Amon-Ra St. Brown wasn’t close. If Campbell was going to gamble, going for a low-percentage completion on top of that was mind-boggling. More to the point, what’s wrong with tying the game at that point, especially after blowing a 17-point halftime lead?
“There’s nothing wrong with the game being tied,” said McCourty. “There’s so much emotions in football that analytics doesn’t account for. You’re on the sideline and everyone’s saying kick the field goal, kick the field goal, then you don’t.
“As much as a defender as you are, as much as you want to do your job, there’s a let down. Man, we should have just kicked that field goal. Or we just should have punted the ball. That’s stuff people don’t think about, the emotional state of the player. Subconsciously, you’re so angry about it, that it can affect your play the next time you go on the field, and you want to deliver.”
Of course, analytics supported both fourth down decisions by Campbell. Reading the pulse of what was happening in the game, however, suggested taking three points in both cases.
As for Mayo, how might he have handled a similar situation?
“What I would say is you never turn down points,” he told WEEI.
Amen to that.
NFL fans can wager online on Massachusetts sports betting with enticing promo codes from top online sportsbooks. Use the FanDuel Massachusetts promo code and the DraftKings Massachusetts promo code for massive new user bonuses.
