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Karen Guregian: It would be an upset if Alex Van Pelt is retained

FOXBOROUGH – In recent days, Drake Maye, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, Antonio Gibson have all openly come out in support of Alex Van Pelt.

Given that list alone, the Patriots offensive coordinator and play caller has won over many of the better players in the room.

Veteran running back Gibson went so far as to say it would be “completely wrong” for the Patriots to throw AVP under the bus.

With a 3-13 team, someone has to go. There’s usually a pound of flesh that’s sacrificed. And while Van Pelt has done a good job developing Maye, he seems like the odds on favorite to be one of the first to go – and that’s whether Jerod Mayo is kept, or not.

While he’s arguably done the best job of any coach on the staff, the video of Robert and Jonathan Kraft stewing over the play-calling when the cameras rolled to them in the press box in Arizona three games ago seemed pretty damning.

It strongly suggested which coach might draw the short straw.

Heading into Sunday’s season finale with Buffalo, the Patriots offense ranked 30th in scoring (16.6 points per game), 30th in total offense, 30th in red zone offense, and 29th in third down offense.

A huge factor playing into those sorry stats is a lack of talent on that side of the ball. While Maye has given the team a lift at quarterback, that hasn’t translated into wins.

Van Pelt came in with a good reputation for developing quarterbacks, but hadn’t done much play-calling as an offensive coach. Most recently, during his four seasons as the Browns offensive coordinator, head coach Kevin Stefanski was the offensive play-caller, not Van Pelt.

Van Pelt has made some poor calls along the way, and admitted to mistakes, but he also hasn’t been able to utilize a lot of what’s in his playbook. He just doesn’t have the personnel to pull out more plays.

That fact isn’t likely to save him. And he knows it.

“This is a business. We all signed up for this,” Van Pelt said Thursday when asked about his precarious job status. “When we win three games, it’s tough.”

Meaning, it’s tough for the decision-makers to stand pat and have patience.

Van Pelt said he was proud of the fact his players have played hard, and given him a full effort throughout.

He later added: “I would love to be back. I really like the organization. I like our guys. There’s stuff to build on there, but again, that’s out of my control.”

Bill O’Brien, a noted play caller, couldn’t produce offense last season largely because he didn’t have talent to work across the board, from the quarterback on out.

Van Pelt brought in a new offense. As several players have pointed out, having to learn a new offense next year, assuming there will be a new coordinator, won’t put them in the best stead – Maye in particular.

Instead of hitting the ground running, it’s back to square one, trying to comfortable with the change.

“It’s tough. You have to learn new things. You have to learn new terms. You have to learn how this OC wants it. It changes how we go into the offseason,” Bourne said Thursday. “So hopefully AVP sticks around. We don’t know what’s going to happen. Nobody is guaranteed anything, but he’s helped Drake (Maye) a lot. He’s helped me a lot.

“Hopefully we can just come in with the same team, same offense. Because it’ll help us, I think, take a step. If we’ve gotta start with something new, it’s gonna be tough regardless.”

If Van Pelt is in fact scapegoated, or goes out in a total house-cleaning, it does help him knowing where the players stand.

“That means a lot. Those are the guys you stand in front of every day. They know my interest, they know how I feel about them,” Van Pelt said. “I really do appreciate them … I know it hasn’t gone the way we wanted it to. But the work ethic and the love those guys have for each other hasn’t wavered.”

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