If odds are to be believed, two of the three teams picking quarterbacks at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft were going to be out of luck.
Historically, that’s how it’s gone. There were likely to be more busts than future Pro Bowlers if bunches of quarterbacks were taken at or near the top. Teams had to hope their quarterback evaluations were on point, or else be out of luck.
So with six quarterbacks taken in the first round of this year’s draft, it figured that there would be more duds than studs from the lot.
The biggest surprise?
The quarterbacks going 1-2-3 at the top – Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye – all look like they might live up to the hype. Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix were the other quarterbacks taken. Penix and McCarthy haven’t played, but Nix, under Sean Payton’s tutelage, has led the Broncos to five wins.
It’s still early, but it sure looks like each team picked the right guy, and they can all play, which rarely happens.
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Jim Miller, who is the co-host of Sirius XM NFL radio’s “Movin’ the Chains” and also a studio analyst for the Chicago Bears pre-and-post game shows, has watched Williams, Daniels and Maye in particular, and agreed the top three teams seem to have broken the mold.
“All of them look to be hits so far,” said Miller, a recent guest on Eye on Foxborough. “When you look at how Jayden Daniels has performed, how Caleb Williams has performed and how Drake Maye has performed, it’s hard to argue that those guys should have been the first three quarterbacks being taken in the draft.”
Daniels, the second overall pick, has led the Washington Commanders to a 7-2 start. He’s already distinguished himself from the pack. The former LSU star has thrown nine touchdown passes with only two picks. He’s completed 71.5% of his passes, third-best in the league.
Having spent five years in college between Arizona State and LSU, Daniels, who turns 24 next month, entered the NFL with more experience than most. He’s led the Commanders with the poise of a veteran. He’s also managed to succeed with a bad offensive line, something Williams and Maye have also had to deal with.
Miller got a first hand-look of Daniels when the rookie QB took down the Bears on a last second Hail Mary three weeks ago.
“I think his experience and his preparation, that’s what’s separated Jayden right now,” Miller said. “He is the true commander of the Commanders. He’s very dialed in, and if look at the game he beat the Bears, I mean, how well did he handle that week?
“He was hurt from the rib injury, he didn’t practice, he did a walkthrough, didn’t warm up … and he went out and executed the game plan flawlessly for 60 minutes including the two-minute Hail Mary situation … what a true pro. It’s a pleasure to watch him.”
Williams and Maye are younger, and had more struggles than Daniels, but they’ve shown enough to make believers out of their respective fan bases.
They’re squaring off Sunday in Chicago, with Maye saying during the week there was a “little extra” motivation going up against the quarterback taken two spots before him in the NFL Draft.
The Bears are 4-4, with two dreadful losses the last two weeks. The Patriots are 2-7, losing to the Tennessee Titans last week despite Maye’s last second heroics.
Miller said his reaction to watching Maye run around for what seemed like an eternity before finding Rhamondre Stevenson out of the corner of his eye for the game-tying touchdown against the Titans was like everyone else’s: Shock and awe.
“Some things just can’t be coached when you make a big play like that,” Miller said. “He’s got a big arm, he’s a good athlete … I don’t think he’s as physically strong as a Josh Allen or a Justin Herbert. But he’s strapped together pretty good. You see the athleticism. You see the talent.”
Miller, who was in Foxborough for a day with his Sirius show to watch training camp, thought Maye needed a lot of work at that point. The quarterback he sees now looks a lot different.
“He was rough. He had missed a lot of passes. He had missed the check-downs, he was inaccurate. He looked nervous, he looked like a rookie,” Miller said. “But he’s come a long way since that day.”
Miller, who has had a ringside seat watching Williams, also likes the strides the No. 1 overalll pick has made.
Williams has been in a bit of a tailspin of late, but Miller still feels the Bears got a gem.
“I think the Bears got it right. The players around him need to play a lot better. the offensive line has been a sieve,” Miller said. “The veteran players gravitate towards him. It’s not too big of a moment for him. He keeps his calm and his wits about him. He’s been anything but what was reported about him … he’s not a drama queen. He’s not looking for storylines … he’s been everything the Bears wanted him to be.”
Ditto Maye with the Patriots.
There’s still work to do, but the signs have been positive throughout. Maye shows improvement every game, and his teammates can’t say enough about him, and what he brings to the table.
Maye has known Williams since high school. They went to a lot of the same camps, and had college visits together. They’re friends. And both will be trying to one-up the other at Soldier Field and lead their respective teams to victory.
“Anytime you’re going against a rookie quarterback in the same class, or any quarterback in your class in general, it’s a little extra,” Maye said Wednesday. “I’m looking forward to going out there and getting a chance to play the Bears.”
