FOXBOROUGH – The odds aren’t in the Patriots favor.
In the case you’re rooting for a higher draft pick, that’s good news. According to the New York Times NFL playoff simulator, the Patriots chances of making the players are less than 1%. That’s not a surprise since the team is 2-8.
In the event the Patriots win the rest of the games on their schedule and finish with a 9-8 record, the New York Times simulator gives them a 49% chance of making the playoffs.
For most Patriots fans, hope for this season has been long lost and the focus is now on the future. Considering the Patriots need an infusion of young talent, a higher draft pick next spring would go a long way to putting this franchise back on track.
Of course, it’s not in Bill Belichick’s nature to tank. The Patriots head coach certainly wants to win, especially with Don Shula’s coaching record in his sights.
The Patriots entered this week with the third-worst record in the NFL behind Carolina (1-9) and Arizona (2-9). Right behind them, there’s this week’s opponent, New York Giants (3-8), and Chicago (3-8).
Using ESPN Analytics’ matchup predictor, the Patriots are projected to win three games this season. For those hoping to see the Patriots lose, here is a road map to the rest of the season, looking at which games the Patriots could win and those contests they’ll likely lose.
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Week 12: New York Giants
Chances of defeat: 26.9%
If the Patriots are going to get a higher draft pick, it would help if they lost to the Giants this weekend. The Patriots somehow enter this weekend as the odds-on favorites – even on the road. ESPN analytics gives them a 72.9% chance of beating New York. That’s by far the best odds on this schedule.
The Giants enter this game with third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito. They are the only team in the NFL averaging less points (13.5) than the Patriots (14.1). Their defense ranks 28th in the NFL, allowing 25.9 points per game. The Patriots are No. 23 (23.8).
Week 13: Los Angeles Chargers
Chances of defeat: 66.3%
The Patriots have a 33.5% chance to beat the Chargers. On paper, the talent level of these rosters isn’t close. Los Angeles has quarterback Justin Herbert, running back Austin Ekeler, receiver Keenan Allen, and defensive ends Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. However, they entered this week with a 4-6 record. Chargers fans are growing restless about head coach Brandan Staley
Los Angeles has also been a rumored destination for Bill Belichick in the event the coach and Patriots part ways.
Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers
Chances of defeat: 59.9%
This Thursday night game is not what we’d call a pretty matchup. The Steelers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They’re ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring (16.6). This has the look of a low-scoring game. The Patriots have just a 39.8% chance of beating the Steelers, who fired their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. Pittsburgh figures to be in the playoff picture, so this game could mean a lot to them.
Week 15: Kansas City Chiefs
Chances of defeat: 74.9%
This matchup marks one of the least likely wins for the Patriots. ESPN gives them a 24.9% chance to upset the Kansas City Chiefs in this Monday night matchup. Although Kansas City has some issues (the weapons around their quarterback are lacking), the Chiefs will come to Gillette Stadium with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. This game was always an easy ‘loss’ to predict. Unless Mahomes isn’t in the Chiefs’ lineup, that isn’t going to change.
Week 16: Denver Broncos
Chances of defeat: 42.4%
This game marks one of three where the Patriots are predicted to win with ESPN giving them a 57.2% chance to beat the Broncos on Christmas Eve. That’s an interesting prediction considering the Patriots are playing on the road and Denver is currently 5-5. Denver has also had offensive issues and ranks 23rd in yards and 21st in the red zone. On paper, this is a toss-up game as Sean Payton and Russell Wilson’s time in Denver hasn’t been great.
Week 17: Buffalo Bills
Chances of defeat: 81.3%
There’s no chance the Patriots can upset the Bills, again? Right? Well, according to ESPN, the Patriots have an 18.6% chance to upset their division foe on the road. We’ll see if the Bills chance at offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) changes their fortune after the Patriots delivered a shocking 29-25 upset win in Week 7. Buffalo will likely be pushing for a playoff spot by this point.
Week 18: New York Jets
Chances of defeat: 45.6%
Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Jets benched quarterback Zach Wilson. After beating New York in Week 3, the Patriots could be facing quarterback Aaron Rodgers (or Tim Boyle) in their Week 18 matchup. This 2023 regular-season finale might have a lot on the line for the Patriots in terms of draft position. ESPN currently predicts that the Patriots have a 54% chance to win, but as we’ve seen with the Jets over the years, this game could be a toss-up.
If you’re rooting for a better draft pick, this would be a good time to do the unthinkable and root for the Jets to beat the Patriots.
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