It would have seemed crazy a month ago, but after three straight road wins, the computer simulations and Las Vegas oddsmakers have the Patriots as a near lock to make the playoffs.
They’re a half-game plus a tie-breaker ahead of the Bills for first place in the AFC East and are tied with the Denver Broncos for the second-best record in the conference.
Below is a look at how simulators from The Washington Post, The Athletic ESPN’s FPI and PlayoffStatus.com, as well as BetMGM’s oddsmakers, think the rest of New England’s season will play out:
Washington Post
The Post’s computers simulate the season’s remaining games 25,000 times. This is what it is projecting for the Patriots.
Average Wins: 11.4
Makes the Postseason: 94%
Win Division: 56%
Top seed in AFC: 16
Win Super Bowl: 4%
The Athletic
Make Playoffs: 92%
Win Division 57
Bye 16
Win Super Bowl 8
ESPN’s FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts each team’s record but their formula allows for fractional wins — for example, the Colts are projected to go 11.8-5.1.
The Patriots are projected to go 10.6-6.3.
It gives the Patriots a:
- 83.8% chance to make the playoffs
- 54.0% chance to win the AFC East
- 43.2% chance to make the Divisional Playoff Round
- 17.5% chance to make the conference finals
- 7.0% to make the Super Bowl
- 3.0 % chance to win the Super Bowl
PlayoffStatus.com
Make the Playoffs: 91%
Second Round: 56%
Make the AFC Championship: 29%
Make it to Super Bowl: 14%
Win Super Bowl: 6%
BetMGM
The Las Vegas bookmakers are not trying to guess accurately in terms of eventual results as much as they are trying to spread bets around to the most teams, allowing them to make the most money.
BetMGM, the casino’s online sports betting arm, offers bets on the Patriots who are:
- +3500 to win the Super Bowl
- +1500 to win AFC Championship
- +150 to win the AFC East
- -550 to make the playoffs
- +400 to miss playoffs
MGM also as awards odds with:
- Drake Maye is +1000 for AP MVP
- Mike Vrabel is +310 for AP Coach of the Year
- Stefon Diggs is +2500 AP Comeback Player of the Year
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