We’ll start with a disclaimer.
For years, the NFL trade deadline was the source of plenty of content, but ultimately very little substance. It’s not remotely comparable to the deadline in other leagues such as the NBA, where the game’s best players relocate on a seemingly annual basis (Kevin Durant to the Suns last season, James Harden the year before).
However!
There is no denying that NFL trades are becoming more frequent — and exciting for fantasy purposes — in recent years.
A sampling of the fantasy-relevant moves near the deadline:
- 2019: The Dolphins traded running back Kenyan Drake to the Cardinals for a fourth-round pick. Drake went on to average 101.8 yards from scrimmage with eight touchdowns in as many games for Arizona.
- 2022: The Steelers traded wide receiver Chase Claypool to the Bears for a second-round pick. Claypool once was a relevant fantasy player, hence his inclusion on this list, before flaming out in spectacular fashion in Chicago.
- 2022: The Lions traded tight end T.J. Hockenson and two fourth-round picks to the Vikings for a second-round pick and a third-round pick. Hockenson immediately became the best non-Kelce tight end in fantasy.
- 2022: The Giants traded wide receiver Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs for a third-round pick. A dud so far.
- 2022: The Panthers traded running back Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers for picks in the second, third, fourth, and fifth rounds. McCaffrey has been by far the No. 1 running back in fantasy since joining forces with Kyle Shanahan.
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So what will this year bring?
It’s hard to predict trades. Most rumors will amount to nothing. But based on recent history (and some common sense), we can consider the types of players who may get traded.
- Star players in their prime playing on terrible teams (McCaffrey is the best example)
- Talented players entering the final year of their contract who, for any number of reasons, are unlikely to re-sign with their current team (Hockenson was due to play 2023 on his fifth-year option, which would have cost the Lions $9.4 million in guaranteed salary)
- Talented players who have fallen out of favor with their current teams (Toney and Claypool, in theory)
- Some combination of all of the above (Drake was a proven starter in the league, but had been benched by Miami during his contract year prior to the trade to Arizona)
With these categories in mind, here are some players we can monitor ahead of next Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline:
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
A lot of smoke around this one. In a candid interview with Denver reporters this past week, Jeudy acknowledged that he’s heard his name floated in trade rumors for “about two years.” He has significantly underperformed this season (25 receptions for 286 yards), and he’s due a guaranteed salary of $13 million on his fifth-year option next season. Also, his team stinks and employs a first-year head coach who seems intent on cleaning house and starting fresh.
It would be a surprise if Jeudy doesn’t get traded.
A change of scenery would likely be helpful for Jeudy’s short and long-term fantasy outlook. He is likely an easy target to acquire in redraft leagues. If you are desperate and in need of a home-run swing, it’s worth taking a shot on Jeudy on the off-chance he winds up with a powerhouse offense that could use help at receiver. Kansas City and Buffalo both fit that description.
If Jeudy gets dealt, Broncos rookie receiver Marvin Mims becomes an interesting player in deeper leagues and dynasty formats. Mims has flashed huge potential, but has not played more than 35% of the team’s offensive snaps in a single game.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Similar situation to McCaffrey in Carolina a year ago. The Titans seem destined to enter a mini-rebuild. Their 2023 prospects already looked bleak, and then starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill went down with a high ankle sprain in Week 6. The Titans could fall four games out of first place in the AFC South by next weekend.
At age 29, due to hit free agency in the spring, Henry no longer aligns with Tennessee’s timeline. The Titans drafted his successor, Tyjae Spears, this past spring.
An aside: Go get Spears if he is available on your waiver wire and you have the space to stash him for a week. In the event that Henry gets traded, Spears becomes an every-week starter in fantasy for the remainder of the season. He’s an electric runner and an obvious target in keeper and dynasty formats. Of course, Spears managers are well aware of his 2024 potential and likely will not part with him for cheap.
As for Henry, teams that would project as fits: the Ravens (who would be an incredible match if they choose to go all-in and abandon the Gus Edwards/Justice Hill combo), Bills, Browns, and Bucs.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Much of what was said about Henry applies to Barkley, whose contract expires at the end of the season.
A few differences, though: He is three years younger than Henry, and the Giants seem less likely than the Titans to enter a full-blown rebuild. For those reasons, I’d say a Henry trade is slightly more plausible.
Barkley would benefit massively from a trade to pretty much any other offense. Baltimore would be the best spot.
Unlike Spears in Tennessee, there wouldn’t be a compelling add from a Giants backfield that consists of Matt Brieda, Eric Gray, Gary Brightwell, and Jashaun Corbin.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Perhaps the most realistic trade candidate of the running backs on this list.
Gibson checks a lot of the boxes — talented player who has fallen out of favor (usurped by Brian Robinson, sub-40% snap rate the past two weeks), impending free agent on the final year of his rookie deal, playing for a middling team that could use all the draft capital it can get.
Gibson is hanging out on waivers in plenty of leagues. If you have the roster spot, he’s worth an add prior to next Tuesday’s deadline. A contending team with injuries at running back may be inclined to take Gibson as a rental, much like Kenyan Drake and the Cardinals four years ago.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
I do not think the Cardinals will trade Brown. They already have a ridiculous number of 2024 draft picks, and they’ll need receiving threats for their quarterback of the future, whether it’s Kyler Murray or Caleb Williams.
But…Brown enters free agency next spring. Although he’s not an elite receiver, he is certainly going to cash in on a huge contract. He’s got rare speed and has been extremely reliable in Arizona despite less-than-ideal quarterback play. He’ll fetch a nice return if new Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort is intent on piling up as many picks as possible.
All this makes Brown an excellent fantasy trade target, particularly in dynasty leagues.
If he stays in Arizona, cool, you know he can be productive in any situation. He is currently the No. 19 receiver in 0.5 PPR scoring.
If he gets dealt, it’s going to be to a much better offense — likely a contending team making one final push for a Super Bowl.
