With three games left in the regular season, the Patriots are close to a positive outcome from a negative season.
They need a new quarterback and there are two who are considered possible franchise changers at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft in USC’ Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye. LSU’s Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner is moving up draft rankings, but Williams and Maye remain, by far the most coveted players.
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Heading into Week 16, the Patriots and Cardinals tied for the second-worst record in the NFL at 3-11, one game behind the Panthers (2-12). The Bears own the Panthers pick and would draft No. 1 overall if the standings remain the same.
New England would pick second because its strength of the schedule is worse than Arizona’s right now.
Washington is currently fourth at 4-10.
The Patriots’ margin for keeping that draft slot is slim. A win in any of their final three games could knock them out of it.
Below is a look at each of the four teams near the top of the draft order with three weeks to go with their remaining games, their strength of schedule (SOS) and their computer generated projected record and projected strength of schedule.
Bears pick/ Carolina’s info
Current record: 2-12
Projected Records: 2.8-14.2 (ESPN FPI Note: ESPN’s FPI does projected records with fractions of wins.) / 3-14 PlayoffStatus.com
Strength of Schedule/Projected SOS from PlayoffStatus.com: .519 /.520
- Dec. 24 vs. Green Bay (6-8)
- Dec. 31 at Jacksonville (8-6)
- Jan. 7 vs. Tampa (7-7)
Notes: Since the Bears have the Panthers’ pick, Carolina has no motivation to lose, so they’re likely to be trying to win which helps the Patriots.
That said, the three teams they’re playing all have playoff aspirations. The interesting thing if the Bears get the top pick is if they decide to trade it. Justin Fields has looked good lately. They could get a king’s ransom from a QB-needy team or take generational wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
New England Patriots
Current record: 3-11
Projected Records: 3.9-13.1 (ESPN FPI) / 4-13 PlayoffStatus.com
Strength of Schedule/Projected SOS from PlayoffStatus.com: .523/.520
Remaining games:
- Dec. 24 at Denver (7-7)
- Dec. 31 at Buffalo (8-6)
- Jan. 7 vs. New York Jets (5-9)
Notes: Rooting for the Jets won’t be easy for Patriots fans, but that could be the difference between securing one of the top quarterbacks or not.
Arizona Cardinals
Current record: 3-11
Projected Records: 3.9-13.1 (ESPN FPI) / 4-13 PlayoffStatus.com
Strength of Schedule/Projected SOS from PlayoffStatus.com: .557/.560
Remaining games:
- Dec. 24 at Chicago (5-9)
- Dec. 31 at Philadelphia (10-4)
- Jan. 7 vs. Seattle (6-7)
Notes: The Cardinals, who have been better with Kyler Murray, have two very winnable games left against Chicago and Seattle. The flip side of that is those games could diminish their strength of schedule so if they lose them, it could be tight.
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Washington Commanders
Current record: 4-10
Projected Records: 4.7-12.3 (ESPN FPI) / 5-12 PlayoffStatus.com
Strength of Schedule/Projected SOS from PlayoffStatus.com: .515/.510
Remaining games:
- Dec. 24 at New York Jets (5-9)
- Dec. 31 vs. San Francisco (11-3)
- Jan. 7 vs. Dallas (10-4)
Notes: If the Patriots and Commanders finish in a two-team tie the Patriots would get the higher pick because Washington won head-to-head. If it’s a three-team (or more) tie-breaker, results vs. common opponents get factored in. Washington has two more games vs. teams the Patriots have played.
