With the franchise tag window opening on Tuesday, it’ll be fascinating to see how Eliot Wolf’s front office feels about the option.
Bill Belichick used the tag 10 times during his 24-season tenure in New England, but only twice in the last decade as the salaries increased. Belichick particularly liked to use the tag on kickers — the best value of any position group — hitting Adam Vinatieri with it twice and Stephen Gostkowski once.
This offseason, the Patriots are looking at a significant internal free-agent class.
Though contributors like Kendrick Bourne, Josh Uche, Mack Wilson and Anfernee Jennings have proven valuable, none of them rise to a franchise tag level. There are only three players heading to free agency that could realistically be tagged — two possible, one long shot — so let’s dive into each of their cases.
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Mike Onwenu
Price tag: $19,885,000 (via Over The Cap’s projection)
Tagging Onwenu isn’t Plan A given the cost — and inability to spread cap hits out — but the Patriots should do just about everything they can to keep him in the fold. The sixth-round pick has checked all the boxes in Foxborough. He’s played well at both guard and tackle, been a good teammate that’s willing to do whatever the coaching staff asks of him, and he’s still just 26 years old, so his best years should be in front of him.
However, as Onwenu heads into free agency, there are a few factors working in New England’s favor. At 6-foot-3 and 350 pounds, he doesn’t have a classic tackle’s build and has yet to start a full season at the position; Bill Belichick was reluctant to move him there until essentially forced to. Because of the lack of snaps there, teams may hesitate to pay him as a top-flight tackle, so the almost $20 million tag feels high.
Wolf and company should really try to find some middle ground with Onwenu though. Even on a loaded roster, he’s somebody you’d want around — but the Patriots are in dire straits at tackle right now. With Trent Brown also heading to free agency, New England could have glaring holes at both tackle spots with nobody coming up the pipeline. They’d do well to re-sign Onwenu long-term and take another tackle on one of the first two days of the draft.
Tag verdict: Possible in a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency situation
Kyle Dugger
Price tag: $16,224,000 (via Over The Cap’s projection)
The Buccaneers are expected to use the tag on Antoine Winfield Jr., which should be music to Dugger’s ears. With Winfield off the board, Dugger will be the clear No. 1 safety in free agency if he makes it there.
Though tagging him would be costly, the value really isn’t terrible given how established Dugger is at the position. On the open market, he could see a multi-year deal with an average value in the teens, so getting him for one year at $16.2 million is solid.
Even with the emergence of Jabrill Peppers and Day 2 drafting of Marte Mapu, New England’s safety room would look a lot more formidable if Dugger remains in Foxborough. However, the needs on the offensive side of the ball are far greater and there’s only so much cap space to go around. It’ll be a tough call for Wolf, but if they’re going to tag somebody, Dugger feels the most likely. It’s the best value given his market.
Tag verdict: The most likely of the group
Hunter Henry
Price tag: $18,600,000
Though the tag for tight ends is $12,027,000, that isn’t the case for Henry. Because his cap hit last season was $15.5 million — significantly more than the tag — it’d cost 120% of that number to franchise him, which inflates his franchise tag to $18.6 million.
Frankly, the Patriots would be insane to use the tag at that number. Yes, Henry is a good player and a locker room leader, but he might not get $18.6 million guaranteed total in his next deal, even in a weak free agent class.
The Patriots should explore bringing Henry back — they don’t currently have a starting-caliber tight end under contract for 2024 — but the franchise tag is not the avenue to take.
Tag verdict: Very, very unlikely
