Two teams aiming for the NFL postseason with rookie quarterbacks at the controls will meet when the Washington Commanders host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football.
There is a big difference between the impacts of the two first-year players, though. Jayden Daniels has exceeded expectations during an outstanding first pro season while leading Washington to a 10-5 record. Michael Penix Jr. will be making his second NFL start.
Washington can clinch a playoff berth with a win, while Atlanta has a clear path to the playoffs if it wins its final two games. The Falcons are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South.
Atlanta is a 3.5-point road underdog, while the total is set at 46.5. Let’s get into my expert Falcons vs. Commanders predictions and best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Falcons vs. Commanders predictions and best bets
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Weather may be an issue in this game, prompting the Under as a prime recommendation. The advance forecast at nflweather.com points to a high chance of rain with wind gusts up to 21 miles per hour.
Such conditions can put Penix as a disadvantage, as he will be challenged to move the offense in an adverse environment with only limited game experience so far. If weather is not a significant challenge, though, matching Daniels on the scoreboard will be difficult. Either way, Washington should be picked to cover at home.
If the two teams must lean on their ground games, Atlanta features quite a duo in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but the Commanders employ a mobile QB along with dependable pounder Brian Robinson Jr.
If the conditions are not prohibitive for the offenses, though, as game-time weather can frequently be less daunting than an advance forecast might indicate, Washington simply has the clear advantage at QB. That will be a certain pivotal factor.
Robinson is a reliable drive finisher for Washington and will be a key performer in any sort of game script. If the Commanders must lean on the ground game, he will be a focal point of the offense.
In a scenario where Washington’s offense operates as usual, he should complete a scoring drive with a TD run as his team eyes the postseason. Atlanta’s defense has been stingy near the goal line, yet I still will go with Brian Robinson Jr. to find the end zone as his offense imposes its will.
Falcons vs. Commanders moneyline odds analysis
Why Washington could win as the favorite
Best odds: -190 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Washington is shooting for a fourth consecutive win. If Carolina beats Tampa Bay earlier in the day, the Commanders will get into the playoffs through that route, but such a result seems unlikely. A clinching victory would set off quite a home celebration, as the team has not qualified for the postseason since 2020.
Dan Quinn will be facing off against his former team and assistant in Atlanta, as Raheem Morris will be on the other sideline. Quinn has big-game experience and can set up his team to be well-prepared in a clinching scenario. He has been to three Super Bowls, one as a head coach.
Washington’s fourth-ranked pass defense will present a stiff test for Penix, who passed for 202 yards and no TDs against the lowly Giants last week. Meanwhile, Daniels is coming off a stellar performance in a rousing three-point win over Philadelphia, passing for five TDs. He also ranks second among NFL QBs in rushing yards with 737.
Why the Falcons could win as the underdog
Best odds: +170 at Caesars Sportsbook
Atlanta won its second straight game last week, doing so in the most lopsided fashion of the year, 34-7 over the New York Giants. The Falcons defense took center stage, returning two interceptions for TDs.
The easiest road to making the playoffs would be for the Falcons to win their last two games and take the NFC South crown, yet a win over Washington could also position Atlanta to get into the postseason as a wild card team. As noted by The Sporting News, a victory this week could potentially be a tie-breaker between Atlanta and the Commanders.
Jessie Bates and Matthew Judon registered the pick-sixes last week, Bijan Robinson rushed for 94 yards and two TDs. He became the first Falcons player in eight seasons to rush for 10 TDs. The Atlanta defense has improved its pass rush recently, with 16 sacks in the last four games. Defense and the ground game will be the keys to another possible win.
