The Red Sox front office entered 2023 with a mandated budget of $225 million, well below the then-$233 million competitive balance tax base threshold.
The base threshold will increase $4 million to $237 million in 2024 but the Red Sox are expected to spend even less this season.
“It (2024 payroll) probably will be lower than it was in 2023,” team president Sam Kennedy admitted at Winter Weekend on Jan. 19. “I don’t know that for sure. We don’t talk about specific payroll numbers. But I want to be clear, the build we’re engaged in and have been engaged in will dictate the spend.”
Feb. 14 marks the first official spring training workout for pitchers and catchers. The Red Sox still plan to add to their roster after identifying starting pitching as their top area of need at the beginning of the offseason. Boston has done little to address its pitching issues. As it stands right now, the Sox have a worse starting rotation on paper than they did in 2023.
Boston has plenty of payroll flexibility. MassLive calculated the CBT payroll (see below) at approximately $190.95 million before adding in another $10 million for in-season moves.
The Red Sox, therefore, have approximately another $36-37 million to spend before even reaching the base threshold, which would require them to pay a 20% tax penalty on their overage. But if the Red Sox plan to be below last year’s CBT payroll of $225 million, then the front office has $25 million or less to spend.
Red Sox payroll breakdown:
Guaranteed contracts: Rafael Devers $29M, Trevor Story $23.333M, Lucas Giolito $19.25M, Masataka Yoshida $18M, Kenley Jansen $16M, Chris Martin $8.75M, Garrett Whitlock $4.6875M, Rob Refsnyder $1.85M, Cooper Criswell $1M. Total: $121.8705M.
Other guaranteed money: Chris Sale $17M, Justin Turner $4.15M, Eric Hosmer $740,000. Total: $21.89M.
Arbitration players: Nick Pivetta $7.5M, Reese McGuire $1.5M, Tyler O’Neill $5.85M, John Schreiber $1.175M. Total: $16.025M.
Pre-arbitration players: Wilyer Abreu, Brayan Bello, Brennan Bernardino, Isaiah Campbell, Triston Casas, Max Castillo, Kutter Crawford, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, Wikelman Gonzalez, Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, Tanner Houck, Joe Jacques, Zack Kelly, Bryan Mata, Chris Murphy, Luis Perales, Ceddanne Rafaela, Pablo Reyes, Justin Slaten, Enmanuel Valdez, Brandon Walter, Zack Weiss, Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Connor Wong. Projected Total: $12.5 million.
Medical and benefits costs: $17M.
Pre-arbitration pool: $1.667M.
Estimated Total: $190.95 million. Add another approximately $10 million for in-season moves, bonuses, etc., and the CBT payroll is at approximately $200-201 million.
BetMGM BET $5, GET $158! BONUS BETS
STATES: MA, KY, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21 years of age or older to wager. MA Only. New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire 7 days from issuance. In Partnership with MGM Springfield. Play it smart from the start with GameSense. GameSenseMA.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org.
MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported Dec. 31 that the Red Sox have told at least one free agent target that they need to shed more payroll before pursuing him as aggressively as they want to. The Athletic also reported Jan. 5 that the Boston is likely to reduce payroll before adding another free agent.
Kennedy was asked directly about the Red Sox’s potential desire to shed payroll before signing another free agent.
“We’re not done this offseason obviously by definition, where we are,” Kennedy said at Winter Weekend. “We do have a set budget that we don’t talk about publicly, as to not tip our hand to our competitors. And I’ll leave it at that.”
Kennedy would not say whether the payroll has already reached that set budget and if it is necessary to subtract players/money via trade to add more in free agency.
“Again, I don’t want to get into specifics around absolute dollar numbers or payroll,” Kennedy said. “This ownership has demonstrated a willingness to invest when the timing is right and on deals that we feel are within the framework that works for us. Again, when you have three out of four seasons where you haven’t delivered, we just need to do the right things. And we need to play better. And we need to be accountable and recognize that we have failed as an organization with respect to competitiveness in the American League East and that’s on us.”
As mentioned, the Red Sox don’t plan to reach or exceed the base threshold of $237 million. But what would the tax penalty be if they did? They would be considered a first-time CBT payor because they didn’t exceed the base threshold last year. So Boston would pay a $2 million tax penalty if it spent $10 million over the $237 million threshold and a $4 million tax penalty if it exceeded the base threshold by $20 million.
