The Patriots might not have the worst record in the NFL at the moment, but they’re still favored to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft by at least one analytics outlet.
Aaron Schatz, who is the Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy, and the creator of DVOA, said during an appearance on “Eye on Foxborough,” that the Patriots are the most likely team to gain the first overall pick heading into Week 12.
Currently, the Patriots sit at No. 6 with a 3-8 record. Jacksonville (2-9) is No. 1, followed by Tennessee (2-8), Cleveland (2-8), the New York Giants (2-8) and Las Vegas (2-8).
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“We have them with the strongest chance of getting the No. 1 pick,” Schatz said. “But it’s by like one percent over other teams. We have them at 19 percent to get the No. 1 pick.”
Schatz said based on their simulations, the Patriots should be a four-win team. He gives them a shot at finishing 5-12, but it’s also in the realm for them to stay with three wins and not win another game the rest of the way.
“There’s a lot of bad teams jockeying back and forth,” Schatz said. “They may end up with that No. 1 pick. It would be really interesting if they did because I would think they would trade down with a team that needed a quarterback. That would help them to get more assets and build for the future.
“But I think they could win two more games, and I think they should want to,” he went on. “I honestly think it’s better for them to have the 5th or 6th pick, and a little bit more of a winning culture, than to feel, ‘Oh my God, we went 3-and-14.”
Having more wins than last season (4-13), and having Drake Maye makes for a better outlook.
Said Schatz: “The need to have that top pick is less than when you didn’t have the quarterback.”
Schatz said the calculation for Patriots being the favorite for the No. 1 pick is based on their model for strength of schedule.
“It’s based on how often a team with a certain DVOA meets a team with a certain DVOA, plus home field advantage. We play out the rest of the season 25,000 times. So we have them at 19 (percent), we have Tennessee at 18, we have Cleveland at 18, we have Vegas at 15, and the Giants at 10, but that might be higher now that (Tommy) DeVito is the quarterback.”
