FOXBOROUGH – It’s tough to call a Week 4 matchup ‘must-win’ for an NFL team.
The Patriots season isn’t doomed with a loss on Sunday, but the outlook will look a bit rosier with a win against the Carolina Panthers. After this game, the Patriots enter a tough part of their schedule when they play three games on the road, starting with Buffalo in a Week 5 Sunday night game.
If Mike Vrabel’s team beats the Panthers, they’ll enter a tough stretch with some momentum. A loss, however, makes things look more dire with a tough matchup with the Bills next on the schedule. After that, they take on the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans on the road.
After losing a sloppy game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1-2 Patriots look to turn it around against another 1-2 team this weekend.
“I think the more that you put yourself in close games, the more that you put yourselves in those situations, that you have to be able to have some favorable outcomes,” Vrabel said. “You have to be able to respond, you have to be able to get stops in the red zone, or you have to be able to take care of the football, or you have to be able to produce some explosive gains in the return phase. All those things that are critical, I think, it kind of just comes hand in hand with it. We try to point them out as often as we possibly can.”
Here are five things to watch:
Turnovers
It’s never a good thing when your team finishes with five turnovers in a game. That was the reality for the Patriots last week. It’s why all eyes will be on the Patriots offense on Sunday.
With Rhamondre Stevenson fumbling twice, it’s possible the Patriots could make a change and start rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Whoever is out there needs to protect the ball better. The same goes for Drake Maye, who was intercepted and fumbled. The Patriots have six turnovers this season. That’s tied for the second-most in the NFL. The Panthers also have six giveaways this season.
Christian Gonzalez’s impact
It’s finally time. Christian Gonzalez is set to make his Patriots 2025 debut after missing the first three weeks due to a hamstring injury. This will be the first time we see Gonzalez play opposite Carlton Davis. The Patriots signed Davis this offseason in the hopes of creating one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL.
Gonzalez will likely be tasked with slowing down Panthers rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan. He leads Carolina with 216 receiving yards. The next player, Ja’Tavion Sanders, has 92 receiving yards. McMillan is a big-bodied receiver at 6-foot-5, and it’ll help to have Gonzalez back in the secondary.
Wide receiver production
Patriots receivers keep saying the right things – that it’s not about individual statistics and they’re being team players. However, it’s noteworthy that not one Patriots receiver has 40 or more receiving yards in the last two games. In Week 2, Stevenson led the team with 88 yards. Last week, it was tight end Hunter Henry.
Will this be the week where a Patriots receiver is the top option? Stefon Diggs has caught 13 of 15 passes thrown his way. His 112 receiving yards rank fourth on the team. His high catch percentage suggests the team should throw to him more. There’s also an argument to be made that Kayshon Boutte, who’s second on the team with 147 yards, should see more targets.
Offensive line
The Patriots have used the same starting offensive line for the first three games. That might not seem like a big accomplishment, but that didn’t happen in New England until game 12 of last season. The results have been better this year. However, it looks like that streak will stop on Sunday.
This week, starting left guard Jared Wilson has missed time due to a knee and ankle injury. The rookie has been seen wearing a knee brace on his right knee. That’s not ideal, and at this time, signs point to veteran Ben Brown starting at left guard. The Panthers have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, with one sack in three games.
Penalties
Can the Patriots clean it up? This year, the Patriots are averaging 9.0 penalties per game. Their 28 penalties are tied for the fifth most in the NFL to start this season. Those flags have cost the Patriots 199 yards. Last season, the Patriots averaged 6.5 penalties per game. Only 11 teams were worse.
Their opponent this weekend doesn’t have the same problem. The Panthers have been called for 17 penalties in three games. Only eight teams have fewer. If the Patriots are going to win, it would help if they didn’t go backwards.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Panthers 16
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