The Krafts have work to do.
Ownership needs to figure the best way to get the Patriots out of the hole they’re in.
After moving on from Bill Belichick, the sailing hasn’t gone smoothly with successor Jerod Mayo and a front office led by Eliot Wolf.
The franchise is at a crossroads. It’s a pivotal moment in the rebuild process. The solutions imparted by Robert and Jonathan Kraft at season’s end will have far reaching implications.
The Patriots have a young franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, and if they lose to the Bills Sunday, will gain control of the 2025 draft board with the No. 1 overall pick. They also have $131 million in cap space, most in the NFL.
How well they manipulate the board, how good a job they do selecting talent, and how prudently they spend that wad of cash will go a long way towards re-shaping the future.
Can the people the Krafts have in place handle the gravity of the moment? Can ownership rely on the current group, or do the Krafts need to make significant changes before free agency and the draft arrive in March and April?
In a nutshell, there are three options the Krafts will likely weigh at season’s end.
Option 1: Blow it up. Fire everyone
This is the most difficult option to pull off, but it’s considered a necessary choice by many. It’s the choice that should have been made when Belichick was ushered out the door last year.
Kraft would clear the decks, sweep it clean, bring in an established coach who has a vast network to appropriately fill out the staff. The new coaching hire will also need to have a top executive in the front office he trusts, and not someone from the old regime.
Whether the Krafts first hire the new GM (who in theory would hire the head coach), or he leads with the coach (who’d have a say in the GM) will be interesting in this scenario.
So Mayo and his coaching staff, Eliot Wolf, Matt Groh and the rest of the front office types held over from Belichick’s time are gone.
Unlike Mayo’s hiring, which was pre-destined, the Krafts go through an exhaustive search, vetting candidates. If the coach is the first order of business, find the best one, and spare no expense to make sure they get their man.
If that’s Patriots Hall of Famer Mike Vrabel or Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who has no head coaching experience, or Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Krafts have to pick the right coach. And in turn, the right general manager.
With Maye looming as a rising star, the offensive coordinator/play caller will also be a key hire in the clean-house option.
Pros
Unlike rolling the dice with a first-time head coach, a first-time general manager, a first-time defensive coordinator, and first-time play caller, as the Krafts did with Mayo & Co, the hope would be to have more experienced people in those roles.
Year 1 proved to be a dumpster fire having Mayo try to learn on the job. And with the exception of Maye, Wolf’s first draft also seems like a dud.
In a rebuild especially, it’s important to have coaches and front office types who know what they’re doing.
Given the importance of free agency and the draft, especially, hiring a more proven GM is vital.
Cons
From the Kraft’s perspective, they’re going to have to swallow the money owed to Mayo, Alex Van Pelt, DeMarcus Covington, Wolf, et al.
They’re also going to have to drop a bundle for new coaches, a new front office, etc.
The worst factor here, though, has nothing to do with cash. It has to do with Maye’s development. Continuity with the offensive scheme and playbook is important to any young quarterback.
Maye has developed well under Van Pelt. He has a good rapport with the veteran offensive coordinator, and QB coach T.C. McCartney. A new OC and new scheme could stunt Maye’s development. That’s a significant risk with a blowup. Everyone saw what happened to Mac Jones with three coordinators in three years (Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia/Joe Judge, Bill O’Brien).
If Van Pelt’s replacement fails, that’s where this would be headed.
Bottom line
The biggest question here, is whether Robert Kraft has the stomach to admit he made a mistake with his post-Belichick plan, was wrong to anoint Mayo as the successor years earlier, and is willing to make sweeping changes that would give the Patriots a better chance to turn it around in the long run.
The nuclear option calls for a bold, aggressive, and fearless owner, qualities that marked the early years of Kraft’s regime as the teams’ CEO.
Option 2: Stand pat. Keep everyone
Kraft chooses to stay and course, have patience with the people in place, and not pull the plug after just one year. Mayo inherited a horrible roster while Wolf wasn’t operating from a position of strength. Kraft reasons that it’s not fair to expect the group to turn it around in one year.
So he ignores the pleas of Patriots fandom, as well as many pundits, and hopes Mayo, Wolf, Van Pelt and Covington make a Year 2 leap to justify bringing everyone back.
Pros
Maye would hit the ground running in Year 2. Returning players on offense will be more comfortable with the system. And given that familiarity, Van Pelt would get to utilize more of the playbook.
Mayo certainly had the support from the players in the locker room. If he learns from his mistakes, and everyone improves in their jobs, it’s conceivable for the team to make the kind of strides that were hoped for this season.
This option avoids going back to square one on the rebuild front, or rebuilding after the initial rebuild.
Cons
Fans would be outraged. The Krafts would risk further apathy. That’s already started to show this year with plenty of the empty seats at Gillette Stadium for home games.
Those who have attended and pay good money to watch have certainly made their voices heard with boos and “Fire Mayo” chants.
Moreover, the possibility of the team showing no better than this year’s disaster exists by bringing back the same crew. That would mean Year 2 with Maye would be completely wasted.
Bottom line
If Kraft goes with this option, he better be right. Failure is not an option. They’ll be stuck in irrelevancy for many more years to come. Wolf, more than anyone, needs to deliver in the offseason.
Option 3: Tweak staff. Add support
The tweaks could involve moving on from one or both of the coordinators. So Van Pelt and or Covington, or both, will get the gate.
It could involve replacing a few of the assistants. Wide receivers coach Tyler Hughes looks like a sure bet in this scenario.
Along with that, Mayo gets support from more experienced coaches on the staff, perhaps even gaining an assistant head coach who will help him navigate in-game management.
Pros
Getting better coaches on the offensive and defensive side of the ball can’t hurt. Of course, that has to go hand-in-hand with accruing more talent. MassLive colleague Mark Daniels wrote a piece Friday that had players pointing to a lack of talent as the chief problem ailing the team. So Wolf once again factors in to those changes working.
Cons
The problems are too big for band-aids and quick fixes. And once again, if Van Pelt is let go, how will that impact Maye? And if Covington is axed, would a new coordinator change the defensive scheme? If that’s the case, Mayo will no longer have a beat on what the defense is doing, or how to problem solve.
And, what if Wolf isn’t up to the task at hand?
Bottom line
Perhaps doing something is better than nothing. It’s possible a few tweaks here and there is all that was needed. To those on the outside, it still seems like another roll of the dice.
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