There are elite starting pitchers on the free agent market to pursue, but all along, the prevailing wisdom in the industry has been that the Red Sox will seek a top-of-the-rotation solution on the trade market rather than via free agency.
The reasons are two-fold. First, principal owner John Henry, even in more profligate times, has expressed his reluctance to commit nine-figure deals to pitchers 30 or older. And sure enough, the top three this winter — Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell — each fit that demographic.
Secondly, the Red Sox have trade chips to offer, some of whom will be blocked and made redundant within the organization. That includes not only a number of premium prospects who’ve yet to make their major league debuts, and but also some young players who’ve already enjoyed varying levels of success at the big league level.
Among the top starting pitchers being made available in deals is Chicago White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Red Sox are being considered major players for his services.
“I think they’re right in the thick of things,” said a baseball person with knowledge of the White Sox’ thinking. “It will come down to (what they’re willing to offer), but from a talent standpoint, they match up well. They didn’t show as much interest (as others) at the trade deadline (last summer), but the interest has increased in the offseason and they’re sending the message: ‘We want to be involved in this, we want to be involved in these talks.’
“I definitely think they’re one of five or so teams that are legitimate, real teams that match up prospect-wise.”
Other teams who are expected to be part of the bidding include Baltimore, San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s likely other teams will emerge as the talks intensify, especially those who operating under a “win now” directive.
White Sox GM Chris Getz had this to say to reporters at the GM Meetings that concluded Thursday: “We are focusing on position player return. That is our primary focus in any trade talks. The right players have to be there. We can’t force anything. We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear.”
It just so happens that the Red Sox are well positioned in that regard, with four position player prospects ranked among the Top 20 or so in the game — Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel. And according to another source, in anticipation of the Red Sox being a good trade partner, the White Sox actually pulled one scout off regular coverage in September and assigned him to fully evaluate the Red Sox’ minor league system.
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Within the White Sox’ organization, there’s an understanding that the Red Sox are unlikely to include Anthony, rated by some as the top prospect in the game, in any package to land Crochet. The Red Sox will likely make at least one more member of the “Big Four” untouchable, too.
But the Red Sox system has improved to the degree that even the next level of prospects, including outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia and shortstop Mikey Romero, could constitute part of a package from Boston’s end.
“There’s a nice, second group of players in the system there,” said one evaluator. “From that group, I don’t know if ‘strike gold’ is the right phrase, but you could get some real solid major leaguers from that second tier.”
For that matter, so, too, could someone like outfielder Wilyer Abreu, who won a Gold Glove and posted a .794 OPS in his first 160 games in the major leagues.
“I think they’re open to that as well,” said the source. “Young position players are probably going to be the No. 1 focus. And from there, if it can include an arm, someone like Kutter Crawford, great. But even if the (service time) clock has started, they’d be open to it. They’re going to be open to whatever gives them the best return value-wise rather than timeframe or fit.
“As for Abreu, I know he’s struggled to hit lefties. But when you’re not in a ‘win-now’ situation, you can afford to give him more time to develop. That’s a part of his game that he has to figure out. But it’s hard not to like the power that’s in there. He seems to play with a lot of passion. He would be a good fit, and they could afford to play him every day and see if he can get better (against lefties).”
Indeed, after losing a record 121 games last year, the White Sox are a long way from being competitive again, with holes virtually everywhere, and while they might, in a vacuum, prefer prospects who are a full six years away from free agency, there’s something to be said for having some success in the majors.
“It’s hard to pass up on what you’ve seen at the major league level in favor of something you’re hoping for, someone who’s maybe never played at Double A,” the source said.
Asked if he believed Abreu could potentially headline a deal for Crochet, the source responded: “Yeah, I think so. I think he could. There’s a lot of value there, especially when you factor in the years (five) of control.”
A timetable for any such deal involving Crochet is very difficult to forecast. But with a chance to meet with teams and exchange names this past week, the countdown is on.
“It wouldn’t shock me if it happened tomorrow,” said the source with a chuckle, “and it wouldn’t shock me if it happened during spring training.”
Indeed, the White Sox held onto Dylan Cease at last December’s Winter Meetings before moving him on March 13.
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If the Crochet option doesn’t work out, there are a few other potential targets.
* Seattle Mariners executive Jerry Dipoto continues to maintain that he will not trade any of his starters in one of the game’s best rotations, but others are skeptical.
“I can’t see him continuing that stance,” said one AL executive. “At some point, he’s got to do something.”
Dipoto can retain most of his rotation (Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller) and still have an elite group of starters.
An obvious area of need is additional offense. The Mariners were 21st in runs scored and 23rd in OPS as they again finished out of the running for the postseason. The Mariners have qualified for the playoffs just once in Dipoto’s nine seasons with the franchise and have never won a postseason game in his tenure.
Historically, it’s been difficult to attract big-name free agents to the Pacific Northwest, so it’s a virtual certainty that Seattle will have to trade for some bats — and give up a starter in exchange.
* The Miami Marlins are busy wrapping up their search for a manager to replace Skip Schumaker, and that remains a top priority. Eventually, the Marlins are going to have to get around to attacking the roster which lost 100 games and has lost 93 or more games in five of the last six full seasons.
Like the Mariners, the Marlins have a talented rotation and not nearly enough quality position players to compete. Of interest to the Red Sox would be Jesus Luzardo, Eduard Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but is expected to be fully ready for spring training.
A Marlins source indicated that the Red Sox hadn’t yet had any meaningful discussions to date, but confirmed that any of the three starters would be available for the right price.
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Here’s a look at what the other teams in the division are up to:
New York: Having won a pennant for the first time in 15 years, the Yankees aren’t satisfied. Their primary goal is retaining Juan Soto, for which they’ll have to pay in excess of $600 million. Even the Yankees have their payroll limits, however, and seem intent on remaining under the uppermost CBT threshold of just under $300 million.
That means, if they succeed in re-signing Soto, they might not do much else. They could use help at first base, and the infield is unsettled with free agent second baseman Gleyber Torres likely to leave. If Soto comes back, the Yankee moves will likely be minor; if they’re outbid on him, they have a lot of money to spend and could invest in Pete Alonso (first base) or Alex Bregman (third base) and more. If Soto ends up commanding $50 million or more annually, that money could be used in many other ways.
Baltimore: The Orioles enter a brand new world. They’ve averaged 96 wins over the last two seasons, reached the postseason and for a change, now have a deep-pocketed owner willing to spend. They’d love to keep free agent Corbin Burnes, arguably the top starter on the market, but if they can’t, are well-positioned to compete for others, including Crochet.
Switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander (career high 44 homers) is a free agent, too and failure to retain him will leave a gaping hole in the middle of their lineup. Again, though, the O’s have money to spend and an almost endless supply of prospects to offer to address any needs.
Toronto: The Blue Jays enter 2025 facing the prospect of losing their two most valuable position players: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but there’s been little progress in extending either of them. They do have the benefit of a solid and deep rotation, and have identified bullpen help as their No. 1 offseason priority. It would not be a surprise if they made a bid for Luis Robert of the White Sox.
One person in contact with the Jays reported that they’re entering the winter with an aggressive mindset, perhaps borne of the fact president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have been on the job since 2016 with little success to show for it. The Jays reached the ALCS in their first year, but since then, have qualified for three wild-card spots and never won so much as a game.
Tampa Bay: Quite naturally, the Rays’ biggest issue isn’t who will play for them, but rather, where they will play after Hurricane Milton tore the roof off Tropicana Field. Even before that calamity, the Rays were not going to be big spenders — they never are — and the reports that they might be in on Soto seem laughable.
It’s more likely that the Rays deal from their excess of starting pitching in exchange for some additional offense, but it would be out-of-character for them to make a significant move within the division. The Rays have never spent more on an outside free agent than the $40 million they spent on Zach Eflin a few years back.
