The talking is almost done. After nine days of waiting there will be basketball again on Thursday night as the NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks tips off at TD Garden.
Nine days is enough time to study, overanalyze and change your mind about 613 times. So who knows how much waffling preceded the national NBA media’s predictions for who will be the 2024 NBA Champion.
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Who do the experts like? Read on:
The Mavs can win this. They have the best player, and if Irving sizzles, they could have the best two. In that scenario, they’re champs. With Porzingis out or limited, I’d pick the Mavs.
But assuming Porzingis can give this a real go, Boston should have barely enough answers at both ends. It knows what it is up against — that it will have to summon a new energy and focus, and reach a higher level than was required in the East. Everything for so many years has been leading to this moment — this chance.
Boston in six.
Celtics in six. This is the sixth time in eight years the Celtics have reached at least the conference finals and their second Finals in three years. Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have achieved almost everything short of a ring. Coach Joe Mazzulla’s job status was shaky in 2023 and Horford can’t wait to get off that “most playoff games without a title” list. Urgency alone doesn’t win championships, but urgency + talent + roster depth + experience + continuity + home court should be enough.
Mavericks in seven. Boston hasn’t been truly tested this postseason. No Jimmy Butler in the first round. Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Haliburton missed games in the subsequent rounds. Not only is this Dallas team mostly whole, but it’s also peaking behind a pair of the league’s best closers. –
“I still haven’t seen anything to make me think the Celtics are not going to win the championship. … I think it’s gonna be a hell of a series but I like the Celtics.”
By now, no one should underestimate the Mavericks. They have the star power, the firepower, and the defense to compete with anyone. But the Celtics just have more of everything—shooting, playmaking, versatile defenders, the ability to play big or small—as well as previous Finals experience. I’ll go Boston in six.
I have been waffling back and forth on this, and no answer feels good. You could probably talk me into any outcome and I’d buy it as plausible. Hard to know what’s what with Porzingis’s calf dinged up. If he’s healthy enough and plays just average, Celtics in seven. If Zinger can’t be effective and Dallas stays healthy, Ricks in six. And because both of those are cop-out answers and the league has insisted on staying as confusing as ever, let’s just get weird and say Ricks in seven.
The Mavericks are playing the same kind of defense if not better than they displayed in the postseason two years ago. And, sorry to Celtics fans, but Luka is better than anyone they’ve got on a nightly basis. I don’t think Leprechauns or mystique are going to determine outcomes for the next two or three weeks. I think the extra day of rest between every game (except 3 and 4 here in Dallas) keeps Luka as fresh as he’s ever going to be in June.
Sometimes you learn from history. Other times you have to recognize the call of the future and the game’s next truly great player. — Mavericks in five.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games. Pick: Celtics in 6
Andy Bailey, Bleacher Report
Dallas is battle-tested and -hardened. Wrapping up the Wolves series in five games earned them a little extra rest, too. And right now, the Mavericks seem to have a solve for everything the league’s best and most physical defense is throwing at them.
As TNT’s Reggie Miller noted during Game 3 when he compared them to Mariano Rivera and Dennis Eckersley, Dallas has the two best closers left standing in Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Those two are surrounded with size (thanks in large part to the acquisitions of Gafford and Washington), defensive versatility and talent that knows it’s there to lift the stars.
When these games get tight (and they will) Luka and Kyrie will make just enough more plays than Tatum, Brown and White to win this series in seven.
If Boston clamps down on Doncic and Irving’s struggles against his former team continue, this could be a short series. If they continue to operate at a high level, however, Dallas should stay competitive with an improved defense that was one of the NBA’s best during the second half.
After taking down three teams with better records during the NBA Playoffs, the Mavericks will put up a fight and shouldn’t be dismissed. However, the Celtics simply have too much firepower, especially if Porzingis is healthy. In terms of net rating, they’re one of the best teams in NBA history and haven’t lost four of seven at any point this season.
Back Boston to prevail and add another banner to the rafters at TD Garden.
