With the NFL Combine in the rearview mirror, free agency is rapidly approaching for the Patriots.
The signing window officially opens next Wednesday, but with legal tampering beginning on Monday afternoon, there will be plenty of new deals agreed to before that. The Patriots were woeful on offense in 2023, but still have some intriguing names set to hit the open market.
So who will stay and who will go?
Here are predictions for all 11 offensive free agents (ordered by their last Patriots paycheck):
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Hunter Henry (Age: 29)
2023 AAV: $12.5 million
With Dalton Schultz staying put in Houston, Henry will be hands down the best tight end on the open market. The Patriots have an obvious need at the position — they currently have no NFL-caliber tight ends on their roster — and Henry is well-respected in the New England locker room, but he might price himself out of Foxborough. While the Patriots know what they’re going to get production-wise, an external suitor might see more and throw some funny money Henry’s way.
Prediction: Henry signs a signifcant deal elsewhere.
Trent Brown (30)
2023 AAV: $6.5 million
Though the Patriots have very little tackle depth under contract, it’d be stunning to see Brown back in Foxborough. The veteran totally mailed it in down the stretch last season and (at least) one teammate slammed him for it. With the Patriots seeking reliability at tackle, Brown doesn’t fit the bill.
Prediction: Brown signs elsewhere.
Kendrick Bourne (28)
2023 AAV: $5 million
On Sunday we reported that Bourne and the Patriots aren’t seeing eye-to-eye on his market value, so the wideout is likely to hit free agency. An ACL tear hampered a potential career year for Bourne in 2023, but the veteran has only gone over the 700-yard mark once in seven NFL seasons.
Prediction: Bourne’s market doesn’t materialize and he returns to New England.
Riley Reiff (35)
2023 AAV: $5 million
Bill Belichick was hopeful that Reiff could stabilize a tackle spot in 2023. Instead, the veteran’s body broke down in 2023; thus the risk of signing an offensive lineman entering his 12th season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if retirement is in the cards for Reiff.
Prediction: Reiff isn’t back.
Mike Gesicki (28)
2023 AAV: $4.5 million
It seemed like the Patriots liked the idea of Gesicki in 2023, but had no idea how to actually utilize him. As such, the hybrid pass catcher finished with 29 catches for 244 yards, easily his lowest totals since his rookie season.
Prediction: Gesicki signs elsewhere.
Zeke Elliott (28)
2023 AAV: $3 million
Though Elliott was a productive veteran presence last season, his future goals don’t seem to align with the rebuilding Patriots in 2024.
“I want to get a gold jacket,” Elliott said. “I’ve gotta to continue to play. I’ve gotta find a way to get a championship, help that resume.”
Prediction: Elliott signs with a contender elsewhere.
Pharaoh Brown (29)
2023 AAV: $1.1 million
A blocking tight end that brought some snarl to the Patriots offense, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Brown back in Foxborough. Jerod Mayo and Eliot Wolf have preached the importance of toughness, and the veteran certainly offers that.
Prediction: Brown re-signs.
Jalen Reagor (25)
2023 AAV: $1 million
The Patriots need to overhaul their wide receiver room, but they also need training camp bodies to fill out their 90-man roster. Reagor feels like a coin flip.
Prediction: Reagor re-signs for the veteran minimum.
Mike Onwenu (26)
2023 AAV: $875K
The most important free agent of the bunch.
The Patriots could have ensured Onwenu would return by hitting him with the franchise tag, but opted to use the transition tag on safety Kyle Dugger instead. Barring a late extension, Onwenu will make it to the open market, and his price tag could skyrocket.
Prediction: The Patriots re-sign Onwenu to one of the biggest deals in franchise history.
Tyrone Wheatley Jr. (27)
2023 AAV: $750K
An exclusive rights free agent, the Patriots just need to tender Wheatley a qualifying offer — one-year contract at the league minimum salary — to retain him. He already has experience in the system that new offensive line coach Scott Peters is likely to install, so given that relationship and New England’s need for tackle depth, it makes sense to bring Wheatley back.
Prediction: Wheatley is tendered.
Tre Nixon (26)
2023 AAV: $750K
The 2021 seventh-rounder has yet to play a snap during his three years in Foxborough. He feels like a natural change-of-scenery candidate.
Prediction: Nixon signs elsewhere.
Already re-signed: QB Nathan Rourke.
