Shortstop Marcelo Mayer or center fielder Roman Anthony? Who should be ranked the Red Sox’s No. 1 prospect entering 2024?
Flash back to November 2016, not long before then-president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski traded Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech and two other prospects to the White Sox for Chris Sale. Baseball America then ranked Andrew Benintendi the Red Sox’s No. 1 prospect, Moncada No. 2 and Rafael Devers No. 3.
A strong case back then could have been made for any of those three being ranked No. 1 but Devers obviously emerged as the best player. He continues to trend upward while the others are trending downward. Devers, a two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger, posted an .864 OPS with 137 extra-base hits (60 homers, 76 doubles, one triple) in 294 games the past two seasons (2022-23). Benintendi, meanwhile, had a .723 OPS with 72 extra-base hits (10 homers, 57 doubles, five triples) in 277 games in 2022-23 combined while Moncada had a .674 OPS with 63 extra-base hits (23 homers, 38 doubles, 2 triples) in 196 games.
Not many prospect experts ranked Devers ahead of Moncada in 2015 and ‘16. The Athletic’s Keith Law, then of ESPN, might have been the only one. Law listed Devers as MLB’s No. 7 prospect overall entering 2016. He ranked Moncada No. 17.
That brings us back to the Mayer vs. Anthony debate. It’s extremely difficult to put together these rankings list. Experts seek the opinions of several scouts/talent evaluators throughout baseball.
Baseball America recently released its Red Sox Top 10 prospect list. It kept Mayer as Boston’s No. 1 prospect and Anthony No. 2. SoxProspects.com, however, has Anthony ranked No. 1 and Mayer No. 2.
It’s neck and neck. Baseball America’s Top 100 has Mayer at No. 15 and Anthony at No. 19.
Anthony’s 2023 season
Anthony received Red Sox 2023 minor league Offensive Player of the Year after a meteoric rise. He became the first first Red Sox teenage prospect since Xander Bogaerts in 2012 to reach Double A. Anthony also accomplished the feat 14 months after being drafted out of high school.
The 19-year-old, who Boston selected in the second round (79th overall) in 2022, began his first full professional season at Low-A Salem, then received two promotions. He batted .294 with a .412 on-base percentage, .569 slugging percentage, .981 OPS, 12 homers, 14 doubles, three triples, 38 RBIs and 41 runs in 54 games at High-A Greenville against competition on average more than three years older than him.
He received a promotion Sept. 5 to Portland where he went 12-for-35 (.343) with a .477 on-base percentage, one homer, four doubles, 10 runs, eight RBIs, eight walks, six strikeouts and three steals in 10 games.
“That’s a freak of an athlete right there,” prospect Blaze Jordan said about Anthony in July.
Anthony, a left-handed hitter, did struggle some against left-handed pitchers. He went 14-for-64 (.219 batting average) with a 29.3% strikeout percentage vs. southpaws, including going 6-for-24 (.250) with 12 strikeouts (34.3% K rate) at Greenville. But he also walked in 16 of his 82 plate appearances against lefties between the three levels, good for an excellent 19.5% walk percentage. He had 11 walks in 35 plate appearances (31.4% walk percentage) vs. left-handed pitchers at Greenville.
The strikeout rate (24.2%) was high but the walk rate (17.5%) was off the charts. So he has shown an elite ability to control the strike zone as a teenager.
Mayer’s 2023 season
The 21-year-old Mayer, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 draft, was placed on the injured list (shoulder inflammation) Aug. 5 and the Red Sox eventually decided in early September to shut him down for the season.
Mayer was batting .337 with a .414 on-base percentage, .582 slugging percentage, four homers, 10 doubles, one triple and 23 RBIs in 23 games for Greenville before the injury, which happened May 7. He took a week off after hurting his shoulder, then batted 9-for-47 (.191) over his next 12 games at Greenville before receiving a promotion to Portland on May 30.
He then struggled even more at Portland, slashing only .189/.254/.355/.609 with six homers, eight doubles and one triple in 43 games.
One thing to watch with Mayer in 2024 is his strikeout rate after he had a 24.3% strikeout percentage in 2023.
He struck out 24 times in 111 plate appearances (21.6%) before the shoulder injury. He struck out 62 times in 243 plate appearances (25.5%) after his shoulder impingement.
He also had a 25.2% strikeout percentage in his first full season of pro ball in 2022. So he needs to cut down on the swing and miss like Anthony. He had a 9% walk percentage in 2023, down from 16% in ‘22.
His Baseball America scouting report notes, “Mayer is gifted with a balanced, adaptable lefthanded swing that permits him to get on plane with pitches in different parts of the zone and drive them from line to line. Though he showed a surprising amount of chase as well as swing-and-miss in 2023, that trait was at least partly attributable to his shoulder injury and his youth.
SoxProspects.com’s reasoning for Anthony at No. 1
MassLive asked SoxProspects.com executive editor Chris Hatfield the reasoning behind the website’s decision to move Anthony ahead of Mayer.
“For us, it was a tough call and not unanimous,” Hatfield wrote in a message to MassLive. “Scouts aren’t unanimous either. I will say it was Anthony moving up much more than Mayer moving down. Anthony showed terrific control of the zone and generated impressive exit velocities all the way up to AA for a 19 year old.”
Hatfield also noted that Anthony played good defense in center field, which improved his projection to remain at the position (instead of moving to a corner outfield spot).
“He’s also got louder tools, I think, than Mayer,” Hatfield added. “As far as Mayer, tough season for him and if you look at the splits from before and after his injury, it’s striking (SoxProspects.com’s Ian Cundall had a tweet on this). As a guy who looks like he’ll stay up the middle at short who doesn’t really have holes in his game, it felt weird moving him down, so to speak. The only worry is that he’s now had significant injuries in both of his full seasons. Something to watch that might be nothing.”
Mayer missed time in 2022 with a right wrist injury.
SoxProspects.com further discussed their end of the season prospect rankings in Episode 301 of their podcast. Listen here.
Baseball America’s reasoning for picking Mayer over Anthony
The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier ranks Boston’s top 10 prospects for Baseball America. He explained his reasoning in The Boston Globe.
“Interviews with dozens of evaluators offered a split view of whether Mayer or Anthony deserves top billing.
“The case for Mayer relates to the fact that he’s likely to reach the big leagues at short and has been a standout performer since early in his amateur career. He excelled against older competition in high school, Single A, and High A before struggling in Double A last season while playing through a left shoulder impingement.”
Speier mentioned Mayer “hits the ball very hard with natural loft” and still could develop more power. He also emphasized Anthony’s on-base ability, power and excellent exit velocities.
“Both look like future Red Sox staples if healthy, despite flaws. Mayer chases pitches, and Anthony swings and misses at breaking balls in the zone,” Speier wrote. “While Anthony surpassed defensive expectations this year in center, there’s a decent chance he’s primarily a corner outfielder.”
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The difficulty of evaluating talent
Hindsight is 20/20. In retrospect, the White Sox should have asked for Devers instead of Moncada. But the Red Sox did a good job of evaluating their own prospects as they apparently liked Devers more than they did Moncada.
“When they got into the Devers part of it, at that point, we were prepared to walk away,” then-president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told NBC Sports Boston in August 2019.
“At one point, I asked for Rafael Devers,” then-White Sox GM Rick Hahn told Fangraphs.com in November 2019.
Speier reported last week that the Red Sox have “no willingness” right now to trade any of their top three prospects, Mayer, Anthony and Kyle Teel. If that changes, the Red Sox need to have a strong idea of whether Anthony or Mayer will turn out to be the better major leaguer.
“It’s incredibly important to know your own system,” Athletics GM David Forst told MassLive. “But you also can’t be afraid of what you’re giving away. I think we’ve had more success when we’ve focused on what we’re getting in trades and just understanding there are 29 other really smart people running organizations. You’re not going to win every trade by whatever margin. You have to give something up. So I prefer to focus on what we’re getting.”
