We’re running a mailbag on Fridays during the season. If you have questions on the Patriots, NFL, or want gripe about past answers, email cmason@masslive.com or tweet @bychrismason. Now let’s get to this week’s questions!
How many wins would the Patriots have if Bailey Zappe started all season instead of Mac Jones? — Matt K.
Good question. Rather than just throwing a number out there, let’s go through their schedule game-by-game and take a scientific approach to a wholly hypothetical inquiry.
Eagles
Reality: 25-20 loss
Still a loss. Whether Zappe or Jones is throwing the pass, Kayshon Boutte still isn’t getting his second foot inbounds. Jones was good in this game, going 35-of-54 for 316 yards, three touchdowns and one pick.
Dolphins
Reality: 24-17 loss
Still a loss. Death, taxes, and Bill Belichick losing to Tua Tagovailoa, regardless of the quarterback. Pop Douglas was also benched early in this game for fumbling, which hamstrung offensive play even further.
Jets
Reality: 15-10 win
Still a win. Death, taxes, and Bill Belichick beating the Jets, regardless of the quarterback.
Cowboys
Reality: 38-3 loss
Still a loss. Nobody has beaten Dallas at home this season and a five-score skunking is a five-score skunking, though Jones was really bad in this game.
Saints
Reality: 34-0 loss
Still a loss. The Patriots didn’t do anything well in this game and were soundly throttled in all three phases.
Raiders
Reality: 21-17 loss
Still a loss. Jones hit DeVante Parker in the hands on a potential game-winning drive. That wasn’t on the quarterback. Beyond that, the Patriots were so unimpressed by Zappe on the practice field that week that they dressed Malik Cunningham as Jones’ backup.
Bills
Reality: 29-25 win
Flipped to a loss. Jones played one of the best (and cleanest) games of his career in this win, going 25 of 30 for 272 yards and a pair of touchdown passes.
Dolphins
Reality: 31-17 loss
Still a loss. Beating the Dolphins in Miami hardly ever happens and Jones wasn’t terrible.
Commanders
Reality: 20-17 loss
Flipped to a win! Jones was abysmal out of the gate against Washington, and this was when he really started to lose it. An average Zappe performance knocks Sam Howell off in Foxborough.
Colts
Reality: 10-6 loss
Flipped to a win! The Patriots offense ran the ball really well in this game and the bet here is that Zappe would have been more effective than Jones in the red zone. It’d be fascinating to see what that would have meant for Belichick’s future, given Tom Curran’s post-Germany report.
Giants
Reality: 10-7 loss
Flipped to a win! Zappe played half this game and was just about as bad as Jones in the rain, but I think he would have made a few more plays if he’d been given the full-time starter’s reps all week instead of just coming in cold at halftime.
So now factor in Zappe’s 2-2 record since taking over, and that means the Patriots would be sitting 6-9 at the moment instead of 4-11. It’d be fascinating, because in this simulation Zappe starts 1-7, but really builds some momentum down the stretch.
Ultimately, I think the Patriots will split their final two games, so that would leave them at a hypothetical 7-10 for the season. They wouldn’t be quite this bad, but still hopelessly stuck in no man’s land.
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What are your thoughts on using your Top 5 pick on Olu Fashanu, future All-Pro, and then drafting a QB in either round 2 or 3. This guy is a moose and can be a cornerstone. Potentially Trent Williams level tackle — A.J. A.
Depends on where the Patriots are sitting.
If they’re outside of the Top 3, then yes, I think taking a tackle makes sense. In that scenario, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Marvin Harrison Jr. are gone, so it makes little sense to reach for a skill-position player just because you want one. There, they should try to take the best offensive player on the board, who very well may be Fashanu.
Hi Chris, if the Patriots get one of the Top 3 or 4 QBs in the draft, what position should they go after with their second round pick? — Pete
The second round pick is an interesting one.
If they take a first-round quarterback, I’d go either tackle or wideout in the second round, whichever prospect they have graded better. Both are massive needs moving forward that need to be addressed as soon as possible.
With all of the Hall of Fame talk, do you see any future Canton inductees on the current Patriots roster? — Miller
The only one with a particularly interesting case is Matthew Slater, and until legendary Bills gunner Steve Tasker gets in, Canton’s doors appear closed for special teams aces.
Why did we win four games and out of a Top 3 pick? — Pete M.
Because the players and coaching staff are still trying really hard, regardless of any tanking talk you may hear on sports radio. Players and coaches don’t tank. Front offices do.
Is it time to look more into Jayden Daniels, assuming we finish 5-12? — Conor M.
It is indeed time to start diving into some Daniels tape. He looks like the quarterback that will be on the board in that range.
When do they trade for Russell Wilson — Sean S.
Never. That contract is grosser than gross. He’s getting cut.
Here’s Santa’s wish list: Who’s the owner? Who’s the GM? Who’s the coach? Who’s the QB? Who’s the OC? Who’s the QB coach? — Jack B.
OK close this out with some rapid fire.
Owner: Robert Kraft
GM: Adam Peters (current 49ers assistant GM)
Coach: Jerod Mayo
Week 1 QB: Gardner Minshew
OC: Bill O’Brien
QB coach: Bill O’Brien
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