FOXBOROUGH – We’ve entered a strange stretch here in New England where fans are rooting for the Patriots to lose. At 3-11, the sad truth is that losing is probably what’s best for the future of the Patriots franchise.
At this moment, the Patriots are in a position to have the No. 2 draft pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. They’re one game behind the 2-12 Carolina Panthers, who currently have the worst record in the NFL.
The Patriots are tied with the Arizona Cardinals, who are also 3-11, but the Patriots would have the No. 2 pick thanks to the tiebreaker of strength of schedule. The Patriots current strength of schedule is .519 while the Cardinals is at .562.
With two blue-chip quarterbacks (Caleb Williams and Drake Maye) at the top of most draft boards, getting a top two pick would be extremely beneficial for a team like the Patriots.
That brings us to this weekend when the Patriots take on the Denver Broncos in the Sunday night matchup on Christmas Eve. The 7-7 Broncos are still in the playoff hunt, so they have much more to play for in the final three weeks.
That’s certainly different for the Patriots, who became the second team (behind Carolina) to be eliminated from the playoffs. As expected, Bill Belichick won’t tank and he’s doing everything he can to prepare his team to beat the Broncos this weekend.
Here are five things to watch in this matchup:
BET ANYTHINGGET $250 BONUSESPN BET
21+ and present in MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, CO, AZ, IL, IA, IN, OH, MI. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
Bailey Zappe
The Patriots need their quarterback to play a complete game. Over the last two games, that hasn’t been the case for Bailey Zappe. This season, the second-year quarterback has completed 69% of his passes for 376 yards with four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 115.5 passer rating in the first half. However, in the second half, Zappe completed 53.5% of his passes for 343 yards with no touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 43.3 passer rating.
Over the last two games, against Pittsburgh and Kansas City, Zappe’s thrown for 337 passing yards with four touchdowns in the first half. He’s then thrown for 83 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in the second half against the Steelers and Chiefs. That has to change on Sunday.
Patriots run game
The Patriots can’t afford to be one-dimensional on offense. Without Rhamondre Stevenson and with an injured offensive line, it won’t be easy, but the Patriots need to establish the run with Ezekiel Elliott. Denver has a solid run defense. They rank 14th in the league, allowing an average of 112.7 rushing yards per game. After Stevenson went down, Elliott had the best game of his season against Pittsburgh (68 rushing yards and 72 receiving yards). That production was down against Kansas City. Elliott ran for 25 yards (2.3 yards per carry) and caught five passes for 21 yards.
The Patriots also signed Kevin Harris to their 53-man roster. Harris scored an 18-yard touchdown against the Chiefs. The Patriots will need more of that on Christmas Eve.
Broncos run game
Russell Wilson is the star of the Broncos offense, but this team relies on its run game. A key for the Patriots will be to stop the run to make Denver one-dimensional. This season, the Broncos’ run game is ranked 14th in the NFL, averaging 112.7 rushing yards per game. Their pass game ranks 25th in the league, averaging 187.1 passing yards per game.
Denver’s utilized three backs this season with Javonte Williams (677 yards) being their lead running back. They also have backs Jaleel McLaughlin (323 yards) and receiving back Samaje Perine (219 rushing yards and 389 receiving yards). The Patriots head into this game with one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They’re ranked second in the league, allowing 84.9 rushing yards per game. The Patriots defense leads the NFL allowing just 3.15 yards per carry.
Patriots offensive line
It hasn’t been easy for the Patriots offensive line this season and won’t get any easier in their final three games. The team lost starting left guard Cole Strange for the season due to a knee injury. Tackle Conor McDermott is also in the NFL’s concussion protocol. The Patriots did get Trent Brown back at practice on Wednesday, but they’ll likely head into this game with two rookies starting at guard (Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi).
The Broncos leading pass rushers are Nik Bonitto (seven sacks), Jonathan Copper (6.5 sacks), and Zach Allen (five sacks). We’ll see how this banged-up offensive line performs on Sunday.
Special teams battle
The Patriots special teams unit needs to be on point this weekend. The Broncos enter this game with the top punt return and kickoff return unit in the NFL. They lead the NFL in punt return average (16.9) and kickoff return average (28.5). The reason is Marvin Mims Jr. The rookie and second-round pick is one of two players in the NFL to have a kickoff return touchdown this season. Mims has returned 11 kickoffs for 314 yards with a 99-yard touchdown return. He’s returned 13 punts for that 16.9 average.
The Broncos also have a stout special teams unit when it comes to defending returns. They’re allowing the fifth-lowest punt return average (6.3) and the tenth-lowest kickoff return average (20.9) in the NFL.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 17
- NFL fans can wager online on Massachusetts sports betting with enticing promo codes from top online sportsbooks. Use the FanDuel Massachusetts promo code and the DraftKings Massachusetts promo code for massive new user bonuses.
