Snowy, white Christmases go way back, further back than when Bing Crosby first sang about them.
With a year of turbulent weather almost behind it, what does Massachusetts have to look forward to this holiday season? Will there be snow?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac came out with its prediction on Nov. 30, giving people an idea of what to expect this Christmas for much of the United States, and especially Massachusetts.
The Almanac predicts snow to be “above normal across the most snow-prone areas, except for the Pacific Northwest.” Narrowing that down, it said New England is on track to see a white Christmas “in the mountains, but not in the foothills and along (Interstate 95).”
A map featured in the Almanac’s extended forecast for the end of the year going into 2024 shows New England being labeled as having milder conditions but still snowy.
“Along with above-normal snow, we’ll see normal to colder-than-normal temperatures in areas that typically receive snow,” the forecast said. “Expect just the right amount of chill in the air for an afternoon of adventurous snow sports or enjoying a big ol’ mug of hot cocoa by a crackling fire. Only snowy New England and the Atlantic Corridor will enjoy winter temperatures milder than typical for their regions.”
“Wetter-than-usual weather is coming to the southern portions of the Deep South, Texas, and California, with potentially drought-quenching rain,” the forecast added. “As the winter map shows, much of the U.S. coastline, from New England down to Florida across the Gulf Coast to the Pacific Southwest, will experience mild to cool temperatures.”
The Nov. 30 forecast said that on average, central and southern New England have a 50% chance of having snow on Christmas in a random year, with Boston’s odds as low as 20%.
What’s most expected to drive this winter forecast is El Niño, which should strengthen through the winter, the extended forecast said. El Niño going into 2024 would mean warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This also results in warmer-than-average temperatures across the country, from the southwest to New England, the Weather Channel announced in November.
A couple of different factors could affect El Niño’s impact in the winter, the Weather Channel warned. One is an atmospheric response to those warmer waters in the Pacific. No responses “means that Arctic air intrusions could be more common in comparison to typical strong El Nino winters, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2,” the Weather Channel cited.
The other issue relates to polar vortexes weakening later during the winter season, forecasters said. The spilling of cold air trapped in the Arctic out towards Canada, the U.S., Asia and Europe is caused by a “jet stream (that) becomes more blocked with sharp, southward meanders, sending more persistent cold air southward toward the mid-latitudes,” the Weather Channel said.
A recent climate report also suggested snowy winters in Massachusetts and across New England could be a thing of the past. The Fifth National Climate Assessment warned of wet rather than snowy winters for parts of the country that historically see snow during the winter.
Smaller snowpack levels in the west would mean less impact runoff in states like California and Nevada. In those parts of the country, “small rural water providers that often depend on a single water source or have limited capacity are especially vulnerable,” the report said.
Precipitation consisting of rain, though, is expected to increase upwards of five inches, the report said.
