5 things to watch when Patriots play Buffalo Bills

FOXBOROUGH – Can it get any worse? We’re about to find out.

The Patriots are 1-5 for the first time in the Bill Belichick era and for the first time since the 1995 season. The Patriots finished 6-10 that season under Bill Parcels and lost in the Super Bowl the next year.

This season doesn’t give us much hope and neither does the Patriots schedule. This next matchup, against the Buffalo Bills could be ugly. The Patriots haven’t been competitive against their divisional foes (other than a game in gale-force winds). The Bills are averaging 28.8 points per game this fall. That’s the third-best mark in the NFL. The Patriots are ranked 31st, averaging 12.0 points per contest.

The Patriots are coming off three straight losses. Two were blowouts and the last one was to Brian Hoyer. Can the Patriots make Sunday’s matchup competitive? Or will this be another embarrassing affair? We’ll see.

Here are five things to watch when the Patriots play the Bills this weekend:

$200 INSTANT BONUS

DRAFTKINGS MASS

BET $5, GET $200 BONUS BET

FANDUEL MASS

BET $50, GET $250 BONUS

CAESARS MASS

$1,000 FIRST-BET BONUS

BETMGM MASS

MA only. 21+. Gambling Problem? If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234
MA Gambling Helpline.

Josh Allen

Josh Allen started his career 0-3 against the Patriots. Since then, the Bills quarterback is 6-1 with his only loss coming in a game where we saw gale-force winds. Simply put, Allen dominates the Patriots. That was emphasized during the 2021 playoffs when every Buffalo drive ended in a touchdown. Last year, the Bills outscored the Patriots 59-33. Yikes.

We’ll see if the Patriots can slow down Allen and the Bills offense. In his first three starts, Buffalo never scored more than 17 points against the Patriots. Since his third NFL season, Allen and the Bills have averaged 36.2 points per game against the Patriots.

Mac Jones

Mac Jones was better last week, but that’s not saying much. He finished that loss to Las Vegas with 201 passing yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Jones is in a massive hole right now and his arrow is pointing down. The only way out is for him to step up and play mistake-free football. Jones has to limit his turnovers, make the right reads, and lead the Patriots offense.

Jones is 1-4 against Buffalo in his career. He threw for 13 yards in that one win. Jones has six touchdowns and seven interceptions against the Buffalo defense. This is a tough matchup, but Jones needs to play the game of his life if he wants to change the narrative around him.

Turnovers

We saw this every week, but if the Patriots want to win, they need to win the turnover margin. The Bills are tied for tenth in the NFL in turnover differential. Buffalo has 13 takeaways this season. That’s tied for the second most this season. The Bills haven’t been immune to turning the ball over. They have nine turnovers this season. Only eight teams in the NFL have more.

Of course, one of those teams is the Patriots. The Patriots have 11 turnovers this season. Only three teams in the NFL have more and one was the team they just lost to (the Raiders). Another issue this season has been with the Patriots defense. They currently have three turnovers. That’s the lowest amount in the NFL. That needs to change if they’re going to stand a chance on Sunday.

Patriots offensive line

The Patriots offensive line has been horrible this season. That’s a problem with this matchup. The Bills head into this matchup with an NFL-high 24 sacks (tied with the Baltimore Ravens).

The Bills also have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Buffalo has allowed an NFL-low four passing touchdowns to go with eight interceptions this season. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 190.2 passing yards per game against Buffalo this season. This is a very, very tough matchup for the Patriots offense. The key here will be for the offensive line to play better than they have all season.

Patriots run game

The Bills have lost two games this season and both those losses have a common theme – the run game. In Week 1, Buffalo was upset by the New York Jets. In that game, Jets running back Breece Hall ran for 127 yards. New York averaged 6.1 yards per carry and gained 172 rushing yards. Two weeks ago, the Bills lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. In that game, running back Travis Etienne Jr. ran for 136 yards with two touchdowns. The Jaguars ran for 196 yards total.

As we’ve established above, Buffalo has an elite pass rush and elite pass defense. The key for the Patriots will be to establish the run and lean on Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. The Bills are 25th in the NFL, allowing 133.7 rushing yards per game. That’s the key to the Patriots staying in this game.

Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 17