FOXBOROUGH – The Patriots were riding high with a 10-game win streak before suffering a second-half meltdown against the Buffalo Bills.
Now, Mike Vrabel’s team needs to show that they can rebound against another good team.
Coming off a game where their defense faltered against the run, the Patriots are faced with a big challenge in the Baltimore Ravens for this weekend’s Sunday night matchup. At this point, the 11-3 Patriots need to clean it up because playoff seeding will soon be the focus.
A win on Sunday clinches a playoff berth. At the moment, the Patriots are the No. 2 seed. If they win out, they won’t finish lower in the AFC conference standings. That means they’d face whomever the seventh seed is in the wild-card round.
Right now, the 12-2 Denver Broncos have the No. 1 seed and finish up the season against two playoff teams – Jacksonville and the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Patriots can beat the Ravens, they finish out against Miami, who benched their quarterback, and the New York Jets, who don’t have a quarterback.
Also, if the playoffs started today, the Bills would be the No. 6 seed, and if they won their wild-card matchup, they would have to travel to Denver in the next round. The easiest path for the Patriots is to avoid Buffalo and Denver in the first two rounds.
Here are five things to watch in this weekend’s important matchup:
Run defense
The Patriots failed last week against the top-ranked rush attack in their loss to the Buffalo Bills. They’ll have to be better against another top rush attack this weekend in Baltimore. The Ravens are third in the NFL in rushing, averaging 146.2 yards per game. They’re first in the NFL, averaging 5.20 yards per carry.
The Ravens are led by Derrick Henry, who is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (1,125) and rushing touchdowns (10). Of course, the Patriots also have to worry about Lamar Jackson, who is arguably the best mobile quarterback in the NFL. The Patriots’ run defense hasn’t been the same since Milton Williams went on the injured reserve. They’ll also likely be without leading tackle Robert Spillane on Sunday.
Drake Maye
If the Patriots are going to win late in the season, they need more from their quarterback. Drake Maye is coming off his worst game as a passer this season. Maye threw for a season-low 155 yards against Buffalo with a season-low 62.8 passer rating. The quarterback had two rushing touchdowns, but the Patriots need more in the pass game.
The Ravens don’t have a great secondary. They ranked 26th in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 233.3 yards per game. They have one of the worst pass rushes, sacking quarterbacks on 4.3% of their dropbacks. That’s 31st in the NFL. They also rank 23rd in the NFL in interception rate (1.77%). This matchup favors Maye.
Red Zone
A key for the Patriots on both sides of the ball is to be efficient in the red zone. The offense was better against Buffalo, utilizing Maye as a runner near the goal line. That produced two first-half touchdowns. Still, the Patriots are 24th in the NFL in red zone offense and 29th in goal-to-go offense. They need to score touchdowns in Baltimore.
On defense, the Patriots need to be better in the red zone as well. They rank dead last in red zone offense, with teams scoring touchdowns 75% of the time. Their goal-to-go offense is tied for last as teams are scoring 100% of the time. The Ravens’ red-zone offense ranks 31st in the NFL. Their goal-to-go offense ranks 16th. The Patriots need to win this battle.
Patriots receivers
The Ravens play one of the highest percentages of man coverage in the NFL. Their man rate of 31.6% is the fourth highest in the league. As mentioned above, their secondary is statistically one of the worst, allowing 233.3 passing yards per game. That’s why the Patriots receivers should win this matchup on Sunday.
That didn’t happen last weekend. The Patriots didn’t have a single receiver eclipse the 50-yard mark against the Bills. Stefon Diggs hasn’t eclipsed the 30-yard mark in the last three games. His playing time has gone down since his 100-yard performance against the New York Jets. Diggs still leads the Patriots in receptions (67) and receiving yards (731). He’s also catching 80.7% of his targets. The offense should lean on him Sunday.
Special teams
The Patriots blew a 17-point halftime lead, in part, due to their special teams unit. Bills returner Ray Davis had two long kickoff returns to set up Buffalo’s first two touchdowns. Davis averaged a whopping 41.0 yards per return in that game. The Patriots need to clean it up and help their defense. Giving the Bills multiple short fields led to a disastrous second half.
The Ravens are 15th in the NFL in kickoff return average (26.0) and ninth in punt return average (12.5). The Patriots’ defense will be shorthanded on Sunday. They have multiple players fighting through injuries this week. The last thing the defense needs is dealing with multiple short fields due to big returns. The special teams unit needs to step up in Baltimore.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Patriots 23
