Starting Sunday, Craig Breslow will get his opportunity to really put his stamp on the Red Sox.
The new chief baseball officer of the Red Sox will arrive at the Winter Meetings in Nashville and get to work on turning the team into a winner again. Breslow has been on the job for more than a month already, but much of the phone calls and discussions at the GM meetings will feel like a mere dry run when things heat up at the Opryland Hotel.
There’s something about getting everybody — executives, agents — under one roof that usually spurs trades and signings. There will be avenues available to improve the Red Sox next week, though it’s unlikely every box will be checked before he leaves. It’s a long winter.
Here’s a guide to what Breslow needs, and some potential paths to take.
STARTING PITCHING: This is the first priority, but if we’re being honest, it could be considered the second and third, too. As currently constituted, the Red Sox have only two slots in their starting rotation accounted for: Brayan Bello and Chris Sale. Sometime between now and the start of spring training, Breslow needs to acquire two starters. And not just any starters — they need to be proven, accomplished and durable.
If the Red Sox want to complete in the top-heavy free agent market, there are a number of attractive options, led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 25-year-old Japanese ace. Principal owner John Henry has long been averse to signing pitchers in their 30s, but the Sox could sign Yamamoto to an eight-year deal and only the last three of which would come with the pitcher having turned 30.
Evaluators have little doubt that Yamamoto can be as dominant in MLB as he has been in NPB, with a wide assortment of quality pitches and excellent command. He will not, predictably, come cheap.
Blake Snell, one of seven pitchers to have won a Cy Young Award in both leagues, is the other top starter this winter. Snell will turn 31 next week, and despite his trophies, has not shown himself to be an innings-eater, having only topped 130 innings in his two Cy Young seasons. Moreover, he’s made it known that he would like to pitch on the West Coast, with a specific preference for his hometown of Seattle.
Ranked below Yamamoto and Snell is lefty Jordan Montgomery, whose stock rose in this past postseason. Montgomery, too, is set to turn 31 later this month. He hasn’t been as dominant as Snell and profiles more as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. It could help the Red Sox that he’s living near Boston this winter, as his wife fulfills her medical residency at an area hospital.
If Breslow chooses to deal for a starter rather than sign one, he’ll have plenty of options. A number of veteran starters with either a year or two of remaining control can be had, including Chicago’s Dylan Cease, Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, Cleveland’s Shane Bieber and Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow.
Any one of those will require a package headed by an elite prospect, and would come with considerable risk: if the Red Sox don’t extend the pitcher they acquire, they could give up a chunk of their farm system for a year (Burnes, Glasnow, Bieber) or two (Cease) in return.
Viewed through that lens, the Red Sox might be better off dealing for a pitcher with less service time, and thus, more remaining control. Naturally, such a pitcher would require a better package of prospects, but the benefit would be obtaining a starter in his prime, with multiple seasons before qualifying for free agency. The Seattle Mariners (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert) and Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera) are just two teams who might have enough rotation depth to make this sort of deal.
SECOND BASE: As it stands, the Red Sox have Pablo Reyes, Enmanuel Vadez and David Hamilton as their in-house candidates for the position. Candidates, not solutions.
On the free agent front, Whit Merrifield, 34, is the best of a rather uninspiring lot. Merrfield offers athleticism, speed and versatility (he can fill in in the outfield), but his secondary numbers are off-putting. Merrifield doesn’t hit the ball hard (as his .382 slugging percentage attests) and he’s somewhat below-average defensively. One positive: he wouldn’t require a long-term commitment, so the Red Sox don’t have to worry about blocking Nick Yorke or Marcelo Mayer for their middle infield.
Among trade possibilities, the Los Angeles Angels’ Brandon Drury is an attractive possibility, with pop (26 homers) and solid defense. It doesn’t hurt that he hits righthanded in a lineup that currently leans left. He has a year remaining on a deal that will pay him $8.5 million and isn’t part of the Angels’ long-term plans. He’d represent a nice bridge to Yorke or someone else in 2025.
RIGHTHANDED BAT: As noted, the Red Sox are imbalanced offensively, with as many as five everyday players hitting from the left side. They need a righty to hit in-between Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, and preferably someone who could eat up DH at-bats while still contributing somewhat defensively. (Breslow has said he would prefer not to have an everyday DH, feeling that it limits a team’s options).
Bringing back Adam Duvall shouldn’t be discounted, especially if Duvall is willing to play some first base, which he did occasionally earlier in his career.
Another option could be free agent Mitch Garver, whose pull power would play well at Fenway. Garver has been injury prone when he catches, but if he could serve as a part-time DH while filling in at first and serving as a third catcher, he could provide real value.
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The balanced schedule, introduced in 2023, means that teams compete with the entire league — and not just teams from their own division — when it comes to battling for wild-card spots in the postseason. In that sense, the Red Sox are battling with, say, Seattle, Houston and Texas every bit as much as they are with teams in the East.
But because the AL East is so competitive — nine games separated the third-place Blue Jays, a playoff team, from the last-place Red Sox this past season — let’s focus on what the other teams in the division might be looking to do.
“It’s fascinating,” noted one talent evaluator of the teams in the East, “because so many of those teams are after the same thing: top starting pitching. And obviously, they’re not all going to get what they want.”
Baltimore: The Orioles have so many high-end position players coming through their system, they literally don’t have room for them all. But they could use some proven starters to augment a rotation that is mostly homegrown, but to date, lacks an obvious ace. Just one issue — the Orioles don’t spend much. Their payroll wasn’t much above Tampa Bay’s last year, so it’s hard to envision them swimming in the deep end for Yamamoto or Snell. More likely, they’ll find a more affordable mid-rotation option, the way they did with Kyle Gibson a year ago.
Toronto: if there’s an AL East team that can stand pat with its rotation, it’s the Jays, who return Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. (Less certain is the future of Alek Manoah). But there’s some reckoning coming the Jays way — they’ve spent heavily in the last few years and haven’t won a playoff game, much less a round. Meanwhile, the service time clock is ticking for both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, neither of whom has signed an extension. There’s talk of the Jays being in on Shohei Ohtani, and the backing of Rogers Communications could bankroll such an investment.
New York: At the GM Meetings, one Yankee official said the team would be mostly focused on bolstering its offense. The Yanks need left-handed power bats, with Juan Soto (trade) and Cody Bellinger (free agent) as the principal targets. Like the Red Sox, the Yankees have built up their prospect inventory in recent years and may now be in position to deal some of it to address needs at the major league level. But the Yankees have also been linked Yamamoto in recent weeks, suggesting that they, too, are in the market for frontline starters. Could a reunion with Montgomery be in the offing?
Tampa Bay: As ever, the Rays find themselves in transition. They’re more than willing to listen on Glasnow, who has a year of control at $25 million remaining. No one thinks Glasnow will be part of their Opening Day roster. Problem is, the Rays have major health issues when it comes to their rotation. Shane McClanahan will miss the season, and both Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs will miss at least the first half of the year. Accordingly, the Rays seem willing to move the likes of Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Manuel Margot to find starting pitching help. And they could use help at shortstop, with Wander Franco unlikely to play for them again.
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Next Wednesday, the 2024 winner of the Ford C. Frick award will be announced for “excellence in baseball broadcasting” and Joe Castiglione, who’s handled radio play-by-play for the Red Sox since 1983, is on the list of finalists for the fourth time.
“I could match the Buffalo Bills,” joked Castiglione of the NFL entry which lost four straight Super Bowls.
The winner will be honored as part of the annual induction weekend July 19-22, 2024. Others on the list include Joe Buck, Gary Cohen, Ernie Johnson Sr. and Dan Shulman.
“I think it’s a great honor because you’re recognized by your peers,” said Castiglione. “It’s (voted on) by the people who have already won the award, along with a couple of historians. So it’s a great honor, knowing that everybody on the ballot is well-qualified. That certainly makes it that much more difficult, because they can go in any one of 10 ways with all the great candidates on the ballot.
“I’d be excited about it. I was thrilled to make the Red Sox Hall of Fame and this would be very meaningful, I think, to join so many great names and some my heroes like Ernie Harwell, Mel Allen, Vin Scully…..I’m not putting myself in that class, but you’re in the same grouping.”
Castiglione is close friends with several of the other names on the ballot, including Tom Hamilton, the voice of the Cleveland Guardians. Castiglione began his play-by-play career in the Cleveland market and though he and Hamilton never worked together, they share a kinship. He’s also good friends with Duane Kuiper, voice of the San Francisco Giants, who spent part of his playing career in Cleveland, and Ken Korach with the Oakland A’s.
Castiglione cites Mel Allen and Ernie Harwell as two of his mentors and role models as a young broadcaster, and, of course, Ken Coleman, who essentially hired Castiglione in the Red Sox booth. Castiglione remains mystified as to why Coleman and Ned Martin, two great former Red Sox voices, were never chosen for the Frick award.
“I think they both deserve to be in,” said Castiglione.
So, too, does Castiglione, who will again work a slightly reduced schedule in 2024, his 42nd year as the voice of the Red Sox.
EXTRA INNINGS
1) Across the industry, there is much consternation about the fallout from the bankruptcy of former regional sports network titan Bally/Diamond. MLB has said it will produce and broadcast games so that fans don’t miss games, but that doesn’t address the loss rights fees. At least two franchises — the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians — are unable to set their budgets for 2024 because of the uncertainty of their TV deals going forward, while the Minnesota Twins have already acknowledged they’ll be cutting payroll because of anticipated lost TV revenues. There’s an inherent advantage, it would seem, from owning 80 percent of your TV rightsholder, as the Red Sox can claim.
2) It’s that time of year when some take statistical deep-dives to justify a Hall of Fame vote for some player they believe to be unjustly overlooked. You know the type: “No one has ever averaged more than nine triples, 26 doubles and 21 steals and an OBP of .343 or greater….” Folks, if you have to work that hard to make your case, you’ve already lost.
3) It doesn’t require his immediate attention, but you have to wonder whether Breslow will prioritize extending young stars like Bello and Casas at some point this winter. Deals will have to make sense for both sides, of course, and in the case of Bello, the risk is greater since he’s a pitcher (and, as impressive as he’s been, not a particularly proven one at that). Still, it stands to reason that a big revenue team like the Red Sox should lock up its best young players early, so as to avoid the inevitable drama that came when past homegrown players like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts neared free agency.
