New England is in for a “big show” of foliage come the fall. Or the foliage could arrive late and depart early, a result of climate change and troubling weather conditions. But one thing remains true — the region’s unique characteristics set the stage for a show each fall no matter the weather.
Experts disagree about what, exactly, the fall foliage will look like across the region. As Bill Keeton, a professor at the University of Vermont, tells it, predicting the foliage this far from its peak is an inexact proposition.
“Every year, it’s kind of a mystery how all this is going to play out exactly, and then, boom, there’s this great reveal every year of foliage,” he said in a telephone interview.
But even if the more pessimistic outlook comes to pass, leaf peepers shouldn’t have too much cause for concern.
“It’s always spectacular no matter what,” Keeton said. “We’re talking about subtle differences here year to year.”
An improvement on last year?
Writing in Yankee Magazine, Jim Salge, a foliage expert, predicted a rebound for the region’s foliage after a wet summer in 2023 led to a diminished season.
In Salge’s view, most trees, aside from those in northern Vermont and Connecticut, have had a relatively stress-free spring and summer without much rain. Salge said the risks to that forecast would be persistent warmth in September along with continued humidity and tropical systems, which would activate latent fungi.
“We expect peak color to develop on time in northern New England, compared with historical averages, with the onset of cooler weather,” Salge wrote. “Colors should be bright, and trending toward a redder year if abundant sunshine allows. Colors should hang on longer than normal before fading and falling slowly.”
But Keeton, a professor of forest ecology and forestry, said he is seeing some early warning signs about the coming foliage.
The critical factor impacting what New England’s foliage might look like is, to put it simply, the difference between the daytime and nighttime temperatures.
“In the fall, as the evenings and the nights are getting cooler, but the days are remaining warm, that’s a signal to the trees to begin shutting down and preparing for winter,” he said.
As the impacts of climate change have set in, New England’s falls have been diminished, according to Keeton. Specifically, the changing climate is such that it has caused later arriving foliage, which then departs sooner.
Now, Keeton is worried that he’s seeing some of the same conditions that led to a disappointing 2023.
“It appears that there is a degree of stress in our trees, and I’ve been seeing foliage browning up and falling off a lot earlier than I would have expected,” he said.
Elevation is a factor
It’s not just New England’s weather that gives the region such spectacular falls each and every year, but also its topography.
Keeton says the mountain ranges that dot many Northeastern states, from the Green Mountains of Vermont to the Adirondacks in New York, create tremendous diversity across the landscape, leading to what he described as a “mosaic of colors” where trees are turning different colors at different times.
But it’s actually areas with low to middling elevations that provide the best view, according to Keeton, because they have a diversity of trees.
“Deep valleys surrounded by high peaks and mountain ranges, you’re going to have those really vibrant colors across the valley floor and … extending up the size of the mountain ranges,” he said.
Salge, in Yankee Magazine, made a similar projection. The best areas are likely to be The Berkshires in Western Massachusetts, the central Green Mounts, most of the White Mountains and western Maine.
Eastern Massachusetts might get a glimpse of a “good show” for the first time in several years, Salge wrote, calling it a “bonus.”
